Switch to:
Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NAS:GMCR)
Beneish M-Score
-2.76 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc has a M-score of -2.76 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

GMCR' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -3.32   Max: -0.72
Current: -2.76

-3.32
-0.72

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Keurig Green Mountain Inc was -0.72. The lowest was -3.32. And the median was -2.35.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Keurig Green Mountain Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0683+0.528 * 0.9571+0.404 * 0.7458+0.892 * 1.0708+0.115 * 1.0394
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9575+4.679 * -0.0656-0.327 * 0.9415
=-2.76

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Jun14) TTM:Last Year (Jun13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $384 Mil.
Revenue was 1022.371 + 1103.072 + 1386.67 + 1047.177 = $4,559 Mil.
Gross Profit was 444.592 + 457.432 + 464.047 + 377.459 = $1,744 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,340 Mil.
Total Assets was $4,644 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,106 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $249 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $848 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $683 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $254 Mil.
Net Income was 155.151 + 162.084 + 138.227 + 126.956 = $582 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 6.259 + -4.569 + -5.56 + 3.363 = $-1 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 230.148 + 320.944 + 272.676 + 63.734 = $888 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $336 Mil.
Revenue was 967.072 + 1004.792 + 1339.059 + 946.736 = $4,258 Mil.
Gross Profit was 407.618 + 415.146 + 419.163 + 316.446 = $1,558 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,397 Mil.
Total Assets was $3,623 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $973 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $230 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $827 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $473 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $304 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(384.107 / 4559.29) / (335.75 / 4257.659)
=0.08424711 / 0.07885789
=1.0683

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(457.432 / 4257.659) / (444.592 / 4559.29)
=0.3660164 / 0.38241261
=0.9571

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (2340.25 + 1105.648) / 4643.664) / (1 - (1396.969 + 973.246) / 3623.383)
=0.25793554 / 0.34585579
=0.7458

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4559.29 / 4257.659
=1.0708

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(229.898 / (229.898 + 973.246)) / (249.042 / (249.042 + 1105.648))
=0.19108103 / 0.18383689
=1.0394

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(847.733 / 4559.29) / (826.747 / 4257.659)
=0.18593531 / 0.19417877
=0.9575

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((254.163 + 683.276) / 4643.664) / ((304.097 + 472.824) / 3623.383)
=0.20187486 / 0.21441868
=0.9415

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(582.418 - -0.507 - 887.502) / 4643.664
=-0.0656

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc has a M-score of -2.76 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc Annual Data

Sep04Sep05Sep06Sep07Sep08Sep09Sep10Sep11Sep12Sep13
DSRI 0.90110.94411.43930.84610.95021.04121.14780.94720.82931.0708
GMI 1.0671.11570.96880.94861.08531.13690.99110.91961.03750.8852
AQI 0.62840.84283.7670.83770.71880.57052.61331.03410.8020.8942
SGI 1.17751.17531.39491.51631.46431.60521.68951.95381.45581.1293
DEPI 1.57240.8550.8290.85511.18631.07910.99840.89351.01660.8551
SGAI 0.92830.89081.11571.06710.88810.71361.10260.95540.89821.0798
LVGI 1.09340.72522.05750.91840.98770.44091.72820.78260.87970.7689
TATA -0.0989-0.0622-0.0155-0.06440.05760.02220.06590.0648-0.0402-0.0921
M-score -2.94-2.58-1.08-2.56-1.87-1.66-1.03-1.34-2.42-2.79

Keurig Green Mountain Inc Quarterly Data

Mar12Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14
DSRI 0.70120.72660.82960.85970.8791.04431.07081.1141.33271.0683
GMI 0.94040.98351.03811.01390.96210.90990.88520.88590.92260.9571
AQI 0.70760.74950.8020.88990.89820.86670.89420.87670.73580.7458
SGI 1.82261.56841.45531.24891.1981.17471.12931.09051.08271.0708
DEPI 0.97331.01281.01660.95910.85520.82150.85510.90210.93421.0394
SGAI 0.92030.93870.89680.98611.01521.04241.07981.05020.99730.9575
LVGI 0.53860.92430.87970.89050.81990.82080.76890.80450.80950.9415
TATA 0.01680.0016-0.0402-0.0894-0.0868-0.0843-0.0921-0.0672-0.0616-0.0656
M-score -1.93-2.29-2.42-2.81-2.84-2.75-2.79-2.67-2.48-2.76
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
Free 7-day Trial
FEEDBACK