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HollyFrontier Corp (NYSE:HFC)
Beneish M-Score
-2.47 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

HollyFrontier Corp has a M-score of -2.47 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

HFC' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -3.87   Max: -0.6
Current: -2.47

-3.87
-0.6

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of HollyFrontier Corp was -0.60. The lowest was -3.87. And the median was -2.41.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of HollyFrontier Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8489+0.528 * 1.6552+0.404 * 1.094+0.892 * 0.9803+0.115 * 0.9109
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9136+4.679 * -0.0508-0.327 * 0.9404
=-2.47

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Dec14) TTM:Last Year (Dec13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $590 Mil.
Revenue was 4283.119 + 5317.555 + 5372.6 + 4791.053 = $19,764 Mil.
Gross Profit was -221.748 + 410.705 + 426.1 + 378.467 = $994 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,783 Mil.
Total Assets was $9,231 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,671 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $363 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $115 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,251 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1,055 Mil.
Net Income was -222.204 + 175.006 + 176.429 + 152.061 = $281 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 2.371 + -1.803 + -0.908 + -8.478 = $-9 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -47.337 + 84.454 + 326.55 + 394.929 = $759 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $709 Mil.
Revenue was 4826.801 + 5327.122 + 5298.848 + 4707.789 = $20,161 Mil.
Gross Profit was 202.016 + 260.814 + 564.498 + 650.155 = $1,677 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $3,896 Mil.
Total Assets was $10,057 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,395 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $303 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $128 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,674 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $998 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(589.905 / 19764.327) / (708.802 / 20160.56)
=0.02984696 / 0.03515785
=0.8489

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(410.705 / 20160.56) / (-221.748 / 19764.327)
=0.08320617 / 0.05026855
=1.6552

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (2782.998 + 3670.539) / 9230.64) / (1 - (3896.444 + 3394.596) / 10056.739)
=0.30085704 / 0.27500952
=1.094

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=19764.327 / 20160.56
=0.9803

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(303.446 / (303.446 + 3394.596)) / (363.381 / (363.381 + 3670.539))
=0.08205586 / 0.09008136
=0.9109

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(114.609 / 19764.327) / (127.963 / 20160.56)
=0.00579878 / 0.00634719
=0.9136

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1054.89 + 1251.403) / 9230.64) / ((997.519 + 1674.49) / 10056.739)
=0.24985191 / 0.26569338
=0.9404

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(281.292 - -8.818 - 758.596) / 9230.64
=-0.0508

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

HollyFrontier Corp has a M-score of -2.47 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

HollyFrontier Corp Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 0.9910.75011.29650.38393.20250.75660.38480.68761.11370.8489
GMI 0.94131.00850.9571.22071.99730.91320.41630.80411.94721.6552
AQI 0.32820.81412.23181.53880.81320.88054.16810.9491.06631.094
SGI 1.43951.32071.1911.2230.82491.72171.85511.30131.00350.9803
DEPI 0.94271.34741.1941.4670.89540.91861.26140.70360.8610.9109
SGAI 0.70830.92670.91290.65721.32330.68190.9140.81960.99550.9136
LVGI 1.1090.89131.0880.87261.28371.07940.54550.89290.91760.9404
TATA -0.07820.0068-0.0647-0.0214-0.0607-0.0491-0.03160.0059-0.0109-0.0508
M-score -2.76-2.37-1.86-2.46-0.60-2.36-1.27-2.56-1.88-2.47

HollyFrontier Corp Quarterly Data

Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14
DSRI 0.34960.68760.81341.2470.99721.11371.02891.01420.92120.8489
GMI 0.87540.80410.74670.94521.34451.94722.4662.41291.57621.6552
AQI 0.97860.9490.96150.9631.05471.06631.04330.98241.01311.094
SGI 1.57081.30131.1011.02391.02841.00351.0190.9980.99150.9803
DEPI 0.63820.70360.76120.82460.86050.8610.89520.86160.9160.9109
SGAI 0.83650.81960.9010.89150.98680.99550.95050.91370.90490.9136
LVGI 0.910.89290.81980.89820.8330.91760.9931.04731.0070.9404
TATA 0.0130.00590.0149-0.0076-0.0196-0.0109-0.0413-0.0626-0.0289-0.0508
M-score -2.57-2.56-2.59-2.28-2.30-1.88-1.84-2.04-2.38-2.47
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