Switch to:
HollyFrontier Corp (NYSE:HFC)
Beneish M-Score
-2.68 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

HollyFrontier Corp has a M-score of -2.68 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

HFC' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -4.61   Max: 1.87
Current: -2.68

-4.61
1.87

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of HollyFrontier Corp was 1.87. The lowest was -4.61. And the median was -2.35.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of HollyFrontier Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8618+0.528 * 1.1216+0.404 * 1.1258+0.892 * 0.8882+0.115 * 0.9498
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0504+4.679 * -0.0267-0.327 * 0.8578
=-2.68

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar15) TTM:Last Year (Mar14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $527 Mil.
Revenue was 3006.626 + 4283.119 + 5317.555 + 5372.6 = $17,980 Mil.
Gross Profit was 498.203 + -221.748 + 410.705 + 426.1 = $1,113 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,716 Mil.
Total Assets was $9,262 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,781 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $363 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $117 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,172 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1,077 Mil.
Net Income was 226.876 + -222.204 + 175.006 + 176.429 = $356 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -7.041 + 2.371 + -1.803 + -0.908 = $-7 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 246.892 + -47.337 + 84.454 + 326.55 = $611 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $688 Mil.
Revenue was 4791.053 + 4826.801 + 5327.122 + 5298.848 = $20,244 Mil.
Gross Profit was 378.467 + 202.016 + 260.814 + 564.498 = $1,406 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $4,186 Mil.
Total Assets was $10,381 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,442 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $312 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $126 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,917 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1,023 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(526.853 / 17979.9) / (688.338 / 20243.824)
=0.02930233 / 0.03400237
=0.8618

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(-221.748 / 20243.824) / (498.203 / 17979.9)
=0.06944315 / 0.06191692
=1.1216

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (2715.778 + 3781.16) / 9262.127) / (1 - (4185.509 + 3442.299) / 10380.558)
=0.29854795 / 0.26518324
=1.1258

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=17979.9 / 20243.824
=0.8882

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(312.232 / (312.232 + 3442.299)) / (362.845 / (362.845 + 3781.16))
=0.08316139 / 0.08755902
=0.9498

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(117.255 / 17979.9) / (125.688 / 20243.824)
=0.00652145 / 0.00620871
=1.0504

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1077.369 + 1172.403) / 9262.127) / ((1023.057 + 1916.51) / 10380.558)
=0.24290015 / 0.28318006
=0.8578

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(356.107 - -7.381 - 610.559) / 9262.127
=-0.0267

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

HollyFrontier Corp has a M-score of -2.68 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

HollyFrontier Corp Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 0.9910.75011.29650.38393.20250.75660.38480.68761.11370.8489
GMI 0.94131.00850.9571.22071.99730.91320.41630.80411.94721.6552
AQI 0.32820.81412.23181.53880.81320.88054.16810.9491.06631.094
SGI 1.43951.32071.1911.2230.82491.72171.85511.30131.00350.9803
DEPI 0.94271.34741.1941.4670.89540.91861.26140.70360.8610.9109
SGAI 0.70830.92670.91290.65721.32330.68190.9140.81960.99550.9136
LVGI 1.1090.89131.0880.87261.28371.07940.54550.89290.91760.9404
TATA -0.07820.0068-0.0647-0.0214-0.0607-0.0491-0.03160.0059-0.0109-0.0508
M-score -2.76-2.37-1.86-2.46-0.60-2.36-1.27-2.56-1.88-2.47

HollyFrontier Corp Quarterly Data

Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15
DSRI 0.68760.81341.2470.99721.11371.02891.01420.92120.84890.8618
GMI 0.80410.74670.94521.34451.94722.4662.41291.57621.65521.1216
AQI 0.9490.96150.9631.05471.06631.04330.98241.01311.0941.1258
SGI 1.30131.1011.02391.02841.00351.0190.9980.99150.98030.8882
DEPI 0.70360.76120.82460.86050.8610.89520.86160.9160.91090.9498
SGAI 0.81960.9010.89150.98680.99550.95050.91370.90490.91361.0504
LVGI 0.89290.81980.89820.8330.91760.9931.04731.0070.94040.8578
TATA 0.00590.0149-0.0076-0.0196-0.0109-0.0413-0.0626-0.0289-0.0508-0.0267
M-score -2.56-2.59-2.28-2.30-1.88-1.84-2.04-2.38-2.47-2.68
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)

GuruFocus Premium Plus Membership

FEEDBACK