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HollyFrontier Corp (NYSE:HFC)
Beneish M-Score
-2.97 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

HollyFrontier Corp has a M-score of -2.97 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

HFC' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.61   Max: 1.89
Current: -2.97

-4.61
1.89

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of HollyFrontier Corp was 1.89. The lowest was -4.61. And the median was -2.35.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of HollyFrontier Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.2005+0.528 * 0.5378+0.404 * 1.1298+0.892 * 0.6813+0.115 * 1.1254
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.4633+4.679 * -0.0245-0.327 * 1.0509
=-2.97

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar16) TTM:Last Year (Mar15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $431 Mil.
Revenue was 2018.724 + 2943.559 + 3585.823 + 3701.912 = $12,250 Mil.
Gross Profit was 197.099 + 68.28 + 441.115 + 703.752 = $1,410 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,499 Mil.
Total Assets was $8,594 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,196 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $354 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $117 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $886 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1,308 Mil.
Net Income was 21.253 + -43.921 + 196.322 + 360.824 = $534 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -5.888 + 2.704 + 8.497 + 0.136 = $5 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 6.636 + 76.285 + 333.401 + 323.048 = $739 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $527 Mil.
Revenue was 3006.626 + 4283.119 + 5317.555 + 5372.6 = $17,980 Mil.
Gross Profit was 498.203 + -221.748 + 410.705 + 426.1 = $1,113 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,716 Mil.
Total Assets was $9,262 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,781 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $363 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $117 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,172 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1,077 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(430.914 / 12250.018) / (526.853 / 17979.9)
=0.0351766 / 0.02930233
=1.2005

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1113.26 / 17979.9) / (1410.246 / 12250.018)
=0.06191692 / 0.11512195
=0.5378

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1499.27 + 4196.257) / 8594.287) / (1 - (2715.778 + 3781.16) / 9262.127)
=0.33728918 / 0.29854795
=1.1298

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=12250.018 / 17979.9
=0.6813

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(362.845 / (362.845 + 3781.16)) / (354.019 / (354.019 + 4196.257))
=0.08755902 / 0.07780165
=1.1254

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(116.898 / 12250.018) / (117.255 / 17979.9)
=0.00954268 / 0.00652145
=1.4633

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1308.168 + 885.608) / 8594.287) / ((1077.369 + 1172.403) / 9262.127)
=0.2552598 / 0.24290015
=1.0509

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(534.478 - 5.449 - 739.37) / 8594.287
=-0.0245

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

HollyFrontier Corp has a M-score of -2.97 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

HollyFrontier Corp Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 0.7911.29650.38343.20640.75660.38480.68761.11370.84890.8908
GMI 1.55070.9572.22070.44082.27430.41630.80411.94721.65520.3888
AQI 0.81412.23181.53880.81320.88054.16810.9491.06631.09381.1194
SGI 1.25231.1911.22450.82391.72171.85511.30131.00350.98030.6698
DEPI 1.34741.1941.4670.89540.91861.26140.70360.8610.91091.1611
SGAI 0.19110.91290.6521.3340.68190.9140.81960.99550.91361.5743
LVGI 0.89131.0880.87261.28371.07940.54550.89290.91760.93310.9139
TATA 0.0068-0.0647-0.0177-0.0607-0.0491-0.03160.0059-0.0109-0.0508-0.0291
M-score -1.99-1.86-1.91-1.42-1.65-1.27-2.56-1.88-2.46-3.34

HollyFrontier Corp Quarterly Data

Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16
DSRI 1.11371.02891.01420.92120.84890.86180.99981.05420.89081.2005
GMI 1.94722.4662.41291.57621.65521.12160.73140.71580.38880.5378
AQI 1.06631.04330.98241.01311.09381.12581.15521.14661.11941.1298
SGI 1.00351.0190.9980.99150.98030.88820.80270.71780.66980.6813
DEPI 0.8610.89520.86160.9160.91090.94981.08021.06641.16111.1254
SGAI 0.99550.95050.91370.90490.91361.05041.19341.39711.57431.4633
LVGI 0.91760.9931.04731.0070.93310.85780.82980.82420.91391.0509
TATA -0.0109-0.0413-0.0626-0.0289-0.0508-0.0267-0.0066-0.0329-0.0291-0.0245
M-score -1.88-1.84-2.04-2.38-2.46-2.68-2.73-2.93-3.34-2.97
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