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HollyFrontier Corp (NYSE:HFC)
Beneish M-Score
-3.34 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

HollyFrontier Corp has a M-score of -3.34 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

HFC' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.87   Max: -0.49
Current: -3.34

-3.87
-0.49

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of HollyFrontier Corp was -0.49. The lowest was -3.87. And the median was -2.46.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of HollyFrontier Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8908+0.528 * 0.3888+0.404 * 1.1194+0.892 * 0.6698+0.115 * 1.1611
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.5743+4.679 * -0.0291-0.327 * 0.9139
=-3.34

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Dec15) TTM:Last Year (Dec14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $352 Mil.
Revenue was 2943.559 + 3585.823 + 3701.912 + 3006.626 = $13,238 Mil.
Gross Profit was 68.28 + 441.115 + 703.752 + 498.203 = $1,711 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,448 Mil.
Total Assets was $8,388 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,116 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $346 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $121 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $861 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1,040 Mil.
Net Income was -43.921 + 196.322 + 360.824 + 226.876 = $740 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 2.704 + 8.497 + 0.136 + -7.041 = $4 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 76.285 + 333.401 + 323.048 + 246.892 = $980 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $590 Mil.
Revenue was 4283.119 + 5317.555 + 5372.6 + 4791.053 = $19,764 Mil.
Gross Profit was -221.748 + 410.705 + 426.1 + 378.467 = $994 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,783 Mil.
Total Assets was $9,230 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,671 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $363 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $115 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,234 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1,054 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(351.978 / 13237.92) / (589.905 / 19764.327)
=0.02658862 / 0.02984696
=0.8908

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(441.115 / 19764.327) / (68.28 / 13237.92)
=0.05026855 / 0.12927635
=0.3888

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1448.065 + 4115.662) / 8388.299) / (1 - (2782.998 + 3670.539) / 9230.047)
=0.33672762 / 0.30081212
=1.1194

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=13237.92 / 19764.327
=0.6698

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(363.381 / (363.381 + 3670.539)) / (346.151 / (346.151 + 4115.662))
=0.09008136 / 0.0775808
=1.1611

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(120.846 / 13237.92) / (114.609 / 19764.327)
=0.00912878 / 0.00579878
=1.5743

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1040.04 + 860.615) / 8388.299) / ((1054.297 + 1233.994) / 9230.047)
=0.22658408 / 0.24791759
=0.9139

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(740.101 - 4.296 - 979.626) / 8388.299
=-0.0291

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

HollyFrontier Corp has a M-score of -3.34 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

HollyFrontier Corp Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 0.75011.29650.38393.20250.75660.38480.68761.11370.84890.8908
GMI 1.00850.9571.22071.99730.91320.41630.80411.94721.65520.3888
AQI 0.81412.23181.53880.81320.88054.16810.9491.06631.09381.1194
SGI 1.32071.1911.2230.82491.72171.85511.30131.00350.98030.6698
DEPI 1.34741.1941.4670.89540.91861.26140.70360.8610.91091.1611
SGAI 0.92670.91290.65721.32330.68190.9140.81960.99550.91361.5743
LVGI 0.89131.0880.87261.28371.07940.54550.89290.91760.93310.9139
TATA 0.0068-0.0647-0.0214-0.0607-0.0491-0.03160.0059-0.0109-0.0508-0.0291
M-score -2.37-1.86-2.46-0.60-2.36-1.27-2.56-1.88-2.46-3.34

HollyFrontier Corp Quarterly Data

Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15
DSRI 0.99721.11371.02891.01420.92120.84890.86180.99981.05420.8908
GMI 1.34451.94722.4662.41291.57621.65521.12160.73140.71580.3888
AQI 1.05471.06631.04330.98241.01311.09381.12581.15521.14661.1194
SGI 1.02841.00351.0190.9980.99150.98030.88820.80270.71780.6698
DEPI 0.86050.8610.89520.86160.9160.91090.94981.08021.06641.1611
SGAI 0.98680.99550.95050.91370.90490.91361.05041.19341.39711.5743
LVGI 0.8330.91760.9931.04731.0070.93310.85780.82980.82420.9139
TATA -0.0196-0.0109-0.0413-0.0626-0.0289-0.0508-0.0267-0.0066-0.0329-0.0291
M-score -2.30-1.88-1.84-2.04-2.38-2.46-2.68-2.73-2.93-3.34
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