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GuruFocus has detected 1 Warning Sign with Johnson Outdoors Inc $JOUT.
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Johnson Outdoors Inc (NAS:JOUT)
Beneish M-Score
-2.98 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Johnson Outdoors Inc has a M-score of -2.98 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

JOUT' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.25   Max: -2.22
Current: -2.98

-4.25
-2.22

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Johnson Outdoors Inc was -2.22. The lowest was -4.25. And the median was -2.70.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Johnson Outdoors Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.92+0.528 * 0.9805+0.404 * 1.0362+0.892 * 1.0075+0.115 * 1.0556
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9314+4.679 * -0.101-0.327 * 0.9397
=-2.98

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Sep16) TTM:Last Year (Sep15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $41.5 Mil.
Revenue was 74.937 + 139.3 + 134.192 + 85.298 = $433.7 Mil.
Gross Profit was 28.885 + 59.283 + 54.995 + 33.299 = $176.5 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $202.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $310.3 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $49.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $11.8 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $128.9 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $67.7 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $7.0 Mil.
Net Income was -2.127 + 6.841 + 9.321 + -0.534 = $13.5 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0.655 + 0.371 + -0.182 + 0.563 = $1.4 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 16.501 + 62.428 + -1.938 + -33.557 = $43.4 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $44.8 Mil.
Revenue was 85.673 + 140.883 + 133.111 + 70.822 = $430.5 Mil.
Gross Profit was 33.711 + 58.752 + 51.936 + 27.334 = $171.7 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $198.7 Mil.
Total Assets was $299.2 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $45.3 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $11.7 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $137.4 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $69.6 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $7.1 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(41.522 / 433.727) / (44.798 / 430.489)
=0.09573303 / 0.10406305
=0.92

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(171.733 / 430.489) / (176.462 / 433.727)
=0.39892541 / 0.40685039
=0.9805

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (201.968 + 48.998) / 310.279) / (1 - (198.721 + 45.287) / 299.204)
=0.19116021 / 0.18447614
=1.0362

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=433.727 / 430.489
=1.0075

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(11.702 / (11.702 + 45.287)) / (11.833 / (11.833 + 48.998))
=0.20533787 / 0.19452253
=1.0556

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(128.941 / 433.727) / (137.397 / 430.489)
=0.29728608 / 0.31916495
=0.9314

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((7.008 + 67.654) / 310.279) / ((7.062 + 69.554) / 299.204)
=0.2406286 / 0.2560661
=0.9397

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(13.501 - 1.407 - 43.434) / 310.279
=-0.101

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Johnson Outdoors Inc has a M-score of -2.98 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Johnson Outdoors Inc Annual Data

Sep07Sep08Sep09Sep10Sep11Sep12Sep13Sep14Sep15Sep16
DSRI 0.99160.94180.97311.00670.94430.85141.04831.01040.99590.92
GMI 1.02941.07491.01810.92781.00261.00460.99371.01190.99360.9805
AQI 1.02460.4221.58960.88491.27050.90671.17130.79691.18381.0362
SGI 1.0930.97720.84731.07271.06531.0121.03440.99751.01191.0075
DEPI 1.09531.00280.78141.18750.95410.96641.30340.97110.92041.0556
SGAI 1.00321.0560.99560.96380.9770.9960.95530.97831.06930.9314
LVGI 1.01591.3260.80870.98790.81590.86570.96680.94991.09230.9397
TATA 0.0262-0.2941-0.1888-0.05660.0152-0.0844-0.0379-0.0885-0.0205-0.101
M-score -2.25-4.24-3.24-2.73-2.23-3.00-2.46-2.95-2.55-2.98

Johnson Outdoors Inc Quarterly Data

Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16
DSRI 1.071.01040.91161.08430.96780.99591.08160.88580.85750.92
GMI 1.02941.01191.00410.99370.97690.99360.99660.97960.98160.9805
AQI 0.74970.79690.94440.80451.19191.18381.10791.32890.95011.0362
SGI 0.98560.99750.99721.03781.02851.01191.06671.04711.03431.0075
DEPI 1.0690.97110.9110.89210.88170.92040.96470.99361.06791.0556
SGAI 1.0010.97830.98711.02821.07731.06931.00130.93910.89110.9314
LVGI 0.93770.94990.97041.05931.11571.09231.03310.90490.93690.9397
TATA -0.0952-0.0885-0.102-0.0447-0.0503-0.0205-0.0033-0.0548-0.0912-0.101
M-score -2.93-2.95-3.06-2.70-2.72-2.55-2.33-2.64-2.99-2.98
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