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Natures Sunshine Products Inc (NAS:NATR)
Beneish M-Score
-2.51 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Natures Sunshine Products Inc has a M-score of -2.51 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

NATR' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -3.4   Max: -1.66
Current: -2.51

-3.4
-1.66

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Natures Sunshine Products Inc was -1.66. The lowest was -3.40. And the median was -2.57.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Natures Sunshine Products Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8255+0.528 * 0.991+0.404 * 1.1107+0.892 * 1.02+0.115 * 1.3703
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0477+4.679 * -0.0099-0.327 * 0.745
=-2.51

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Sep14) TTM:Last Year (Sep13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $9.2 Mil.
Revenue was 94.876 + 94.325 + 95.753 + 95.484 = $380.4 Mil.
Gross Profit was 71.561 + 70.953 + 72.647 + 71.4 = $286.6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $139.5 Mil.
Total Assets was $209.1 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $45.4 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $4.7 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $268.4 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $60.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0.0 Mil.
Net Income was 1.017 + 3.234 + 9.665 + 1.843 = $15.8 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -1.279 + -0.378 + -1.115 + -0.289 = $-3.1 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 5.403 + 7.648 + 0.49 + 7.349 = $20.9 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $10.9 Mil.
Revenue was 92.458 + 93.675 + 96.479 + 90.377 = $373.0 Mil.
Gross Profit was 68.803 + 71.045 + 72.034 + 66.536 = $278.4 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $145.4 Mil.
Total Assets was $195.1 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $29.3 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $4.3 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $251.1 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $65.1 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $10.0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(9.184 / 380.438) / (10.908 / 372.989)
=0.0241406 / 0.02924483
=0.8255

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(70.953 / 372.989) / (71.561 / 380.438)
=0.74645097 / 0.75323969
=0.991

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (139.538 + 45.373) / 209.126) / (1 - (145.402 + 29.347) / 195.087)
=0.11579144 / 0.10425092
=1.1107

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=380.438 / 372.989
=1.02

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(4.329 / (4.329 + 29.347)) / (4.697 / (4.697 + 45.373))
=0.12854852 / 0.09380867
=1.3703

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(268.356 / 380.438) / (251.126 / 372.989)
=0.70538695 / 0.67327991
=1.0477

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 60.002) / 209.126) / ((10 + 65.13) / 195.087)
=0.28691793 / 0.38511023
=0.745

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(15.759 - -3.061 - 20.89) / 209.126
=-0.0099

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Natures Sunshine Products Inc has a M-score of -2.51 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Natures Sunshine Products Inc Annual Data

Dec04Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13
DSRI 0.92311.19660.74851.14841.42220.83890.7011.57860.97521.0317
GMI 0.98741.00350.9971.00480.99871.00961.07360.98411.01460.9957
AQI 0.89740.86621.00161.59180.92951.05450.96050.90980.73170.8943
SGI 1.27261.06231.031.01221.0180.91661.02281.05110.99911.0289
DEPI 1.16570.95110.88020.91541.21171.12661.00670.90911.16131.0403
SGAI 0.96680.48981.05612.070.9930.96340.93360.98510.93071.0492
LVGI 0.97521.32311.11230.88561.0190.91640.94051.17040.68611.199
TATA -0.0127-0.09-0.1195-0.1278-0.01040.0268-0.12450.0752-0.008-0.0652
M-score -2.38-2.74-3.30-2.85-2.13-2.50-3.26-1.66-2.51-2.84

Natures Sunshine Products Inc Quarterly Data

Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14
DSRI 1.14690.84220.97520.75490.85991.07921.03171.12910.97330.8255
GMI 1.02861.05691.01460.9950.97570.95380.99570.99240.9950.991
AQI 0.94320.74910.73170.74510.71670.78460.89431.10841.21061.1107
SGI 1.02321.00960.99911.00881.00741.01041.02891.0171.01681.02
DEPI 0.98341.10061.16131.16741.08121.01251.04031.10371.28531.3703
SGAI 0.96820.85390.93070.96651.00661.10451.04921.04091.03531.0477
LVGI 0.91880.84290.68610.82010.85941.10791.1991.1311.09560.745
TATA 0.11990.0202-0.008-0.0591-0.065-0.0671-0.06520.0027-0.0029-0.0099
M-score -1.74-2.51-2.51-3.00-2.98-2.88-2.84-2.33-2.43-2.51
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