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Natures Sunshine Products Inc (NAS:NATR)
Beneish M-Score
-2.03 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Natures Sunshine Products Inc has a M-score of -2.03 signals that the company is a manipulator.

NATR' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.27   Max: -1.7
Current: -2.03

-3.27
-1.7

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Natures Sunshine Products Inc was -1.70. The lowest was -3.27. And the median was -2.63.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Natures Sunshine Products Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.2905+0.528 * 1.0174+0.404 * 1.2274+0.892 * 0.8863+0.115 * 1.2802
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9949+4.679 * 0.0255-0.327 * 0.9006
=-2.03

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Dec15) TTM:Last Year (Dec14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $7.7 Mil.
Revenue was 79.994 + 79.586 + 81.247 + 83.878 = $324.7 Mil.
Gross Profit was 58.241 + 58.943 + 60.179 + 61.997 = $239.4 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $101.5 Mil.
Total Assets was $200.5 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $68.7 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $4.5 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $225.5 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $53.1 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0.0 Mil.
Net Income was 3.693 + 2.766 + 2.561 + 5.667 = $14.7 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -0.025 + -0.247 + -0.002 + -0.318 = $-0.6 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1.984 + 5.049 + 4.055 + -0.926 = $10.2 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $6.7 Mil.
Revenue was 86.663 + 93.406 + 92.831 + 93.467 = $366.4 Mil.
Gross Profit was 63.195 + 70.664 + 70.038 + 70.886 = $274.8 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $121.2 Mil.
Total Assets was $196.8 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $51.3 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $4.4 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $255.7 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $57.9 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0.0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(7.7 / 324.705) / (6.732 / 366.367)
=0.02371383 / 0.01837502
=1.2905

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(58.943 / 366.367) / (58.241 / 324.705)
=0.75002115 / 0.73716142
=1.0174

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (101.518 + 68.728) / 200.52) / (1 - (121.249 + 51.343) / 196.799)
=0.15097746 / 0.12300367
=1.2274

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=324.705 / 366.367
=0.8863

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(4.409 / (4.409 + 51.343)) / (4.525 / (4.525 + 68.728))
=0.07908236 / 0.06177221
=1.2802

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(225.488 / 324.705) / (255.735 / 366.367)
=0.69443957 / 0.69802957
=0.9949

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 53.136) / 200.52) / ((0 + 57.909) / 196.799)
=0.26499102 / 0.29425454
=0.9006

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(14.687 - -0.592 - 10.162) / 200.52
=0.0255

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Natures Sunshine Products Inc has a M-score of -2.03 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Natures Sunshine Products Inc Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 0.74851.14841.39220.85480.70291.57860.97521.03170.68071.2905
GMI 0.9971.00480.99371.01510.99590.98941.08750.99570.99891.0174
AQI 1.00161.59180.92951.05450.96050.90980.73170.89431.29251.2274
SGI 1.031.01221.040.89961.02011.05110.99911.02890.9690.8863
DEPI 0.88020.91541.21171.12661.00670.90911.16131.04031.54771.2802
SGAI 1.05611.0521.96460.96391.00320.98180.86381.04921.01810.9949
LVGI 1.11230.88561.0190.91640.94051.17040.68611.1990.74760.9006
TATA -0.1195-0.1278-0.01040.0187-0.12450.0752-0.008-0.0652-0.02230.0323
M-score -3.30-2.67-2.31-2.54-3.32-1.66-2.46-2.84-2.65-2.00

Natures Sunshine Products Inc Quarterly Data

Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15
DSRI 1.09881.03571.14080.98740.84060.66580.7230.81730.88241.2905
GMI 0.95280.99530.9920.99390.98911.00041.01081.01431.02461.0174
AQI 0.78460.89431.10841.21061.11071.29251.06541.01181.17861.2274
SGI 0.99241.02491.00651.00231.00160.99060.97260.94320.90310.8863
DEPI 1.01251.04031.10371.28531.37031.54771.69581.61741.53921.2802
SGAI 1.10421.05151.04361.03841.041.01671.00991.00720.99940.9949
LVGI 1.10791.1991.1311.09560.7450.74760.77440.79570.91660.9006
TATA -0.0737-0.0689-0.0051-0.0121-0.0249-0.021-0.0336-0.0192-0.00760.0255
M-score -2.90-2.86-2.37-2.47-2.58-2.63-2.73-2.64-2.54-2.03
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