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Natures Sunshine Products, Inc. (NAS:NATR)
Beneish M-Score
-2.84 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Natures Sunshine Products, Inc. has a M-score of -2.84 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

NATR' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -3.26   Max: -1.66
Current: -2.84

-3.26
-1.66

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Natures Sunshine Products, Inc. was -1.66. The lowest was -3.26. And the median was -2.64.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Natures Sunshine Products, Inc. for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0317+0.528 * 0.9957+0.404 * 0.8943+0.892 * 1.0289+0.115 * 1.0403
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0492+4.679 * -0.0652-0.327 * 1.199
=-2.84

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Dec13) TTM:Last Year (Dec12) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $10.2 Mil.
Revenue was 95.484 + 92.458 + 93.675 + 96.479 = $378.1 Mil.
Gross Profit was 71.4 + 68.803 + 71.045 + 72.034 = $283.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $148.6 Mil.
Total Assets was $199.6 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $32.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $4.5 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $259.2 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $68.6 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $10.0 Mil.
Net Income was 1.843 + 4.85 + 6.052 + 4.864 = $17.6 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -0.289 + -0.269 + 1.482 + 0.33 = $1.3 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 7.349 + 6.743 + 7.463 + 7.823 = $29.4 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $9.6 Mil.
Revenue was 90.377 + 91.232 + 92.991 + 92.868 = $367.5 Mil.
Gross Profit was 66.536 + 68.088 + 70.381 + 69.139 = $274.1 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $145.3 Mil.
Total Assets was $193.9 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $28.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $4.1 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $240.1 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $61.4 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2.3 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(10.206 / 378.096) / (9.614 / 367.468)
=0.02699314 / 0.02616282
=1.0317

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(68.803 / 367.468) / (71.4 / 378.096)
=0.74603503 / 0.749233
=0.9957

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (148.594 + 32.022) / 199.612) / (1 - (145.333 + 27.95) / 193.919)
=0.09516462 / 0.10641557
=0.8943

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=378.096 / 367.468
=1.0289

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(4.078 / (4.078 + 27.95)) / (4.466 / (4.466 + 32.022))
=0.12732609 / 0.1223964
=1.0403

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(259.225 / 378.096) / (240.128 / 367.468)
=0.6856063 / 0.65346642
=1.0492

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((10 + 68.569) / 199.612) / ((2.27 + 61.39) / 193.919)
=0.3936086 / 0.3282814
=1.199

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(17.609 - 1.254 - 29.378) / 199.612
=-0.0652

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Natures Sunshine Products, Inc. has a M-score of -2.84 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Natures Sunshine Products, Inc. Annual Data

Dec04Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13
DSRI 0.92311.19660.74851.14841.42220.83890.7011.57860.97521.0317
GMI 0.98741.00350.9971.00480.99871.00961.07360.98411.01460.9957
AQI 0.89740.86621.00161.59180.92951.05450.96050.90980.73170.8943
SGI 1.27261.06231.031.01221.0180.91661.02281.05110.99911.0289
DEPI 1.16570.95110.88020.91541.21171.12661.00670.90911.16131.0403
SGAI 0.96680.48981.05612.070.9930.96340.93360.98510.93071.0492
LVGI 0.97521.32311.11230.88561.0190.91640.94051.17040.68611.199
TATA -0.0127-0.09-0.1195-0.1278-0.01040.0268-0.12450.0752-0.008-0.0652
M-score -2.38-2.74-3.30-2.85-2.13-2.50-3.26-1.66-2.51-2.84

Natures Sunshine Products, Inc. Quarterly Data

Sep11Dec11Mar12Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13
DSRI 1.41331.57861.19251.14690.84220.97520.75490.85991.07921.0317
GMI 1.06530.98411.00621.02861.05691.01460.9950.97570.95380.9957
AQI 0.8660.90980.92090.94320.74910.73170.74510.71670.78460.8943
SGI 1.04571.05111.03331.02321.00960.99911.00881.00741.01041.0289
DEPI 0.93750.90910.9120.98341.10061.16131.16741.08121.01251.0403
SGAI 0.94160.98510.98250.96820.85390.93070.96651.00661.10451.0492
LVGI 1.09031.17040.950.91880.84290.68610.82010.85941.10791.199
TATA 0.03620.07520.11730.11990.0202-0.008-0.0591-0.065-0.0671-0.0652
M-score -1.94-1.66-1.74-1.74-2.51-2.51-3.00-2.98-2.88-2.84
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