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Natures Sunshine Products Inc (NAS:NATR)
Beneish M-Score
-2.54 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Natures Sunshine Products Inc has a M-score of -2.54 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

NATR' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.4   Max: -1.66
Current: -2.54

-3.4
-1.66

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Natures Sunshine Products Inc was -1.66. The lowest was -3.40. And the median was -2.57.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Natures Sunshine Products Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8824+0.528 * 1.0246+0.404 * 1.1786+0.892 * 0.9031+0.115 * 1.5392
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9994+4.679 * -0.009-0.327 * 0.9166
=-2.54

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Sep15) TTM:Last Year (Sep14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $7.3 Mil.
Revenue was 79.586 + 81.247 + 83.878 + 86.663 = $331.4 Mil.
Gross Profit was 58.943 + 60.179 + 61.997 + 63.195 = $244.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $104.8 Mil.
Total Assets was $196.7 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $65.1 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $4.2 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $231.8 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $51.7 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0.0 Mil.
Net Income was 2.766 + 2.561 + 5.667 + -3.897 = $7.1 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -0.247 + -0.002 + -0.318 + 0.608 = $0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 5.049 + 4.055 + -0.926 + 0.641 = $8.8 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $9.2 Mil.
Revenue was 93.406 + 92.831 + 93.467 + 87.214 = $366.9 Mil.
Gross Profit was 70.664 + 70.038 + 70.886 + 65.6 = $277.2 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $139.5 Mil.
Total Assets was $209.1 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $45.4 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $4.7 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $256.9 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $60.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0.0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(7.319 / 331.374) / (9.184 / 366.918)
=0.02208683 / 0.02503012
=0.8824

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(60.179 / 366.918) / (58.943 / 331.374)
=0.75544945 / 0.73727571
=1.0246

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (104.759 + 65.083) / 196.683) / (1 - (139.538 + 45.373) / 209.126)
=0.13646833 / 0.11579144
=1.1786

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=331.374 / 366.918
=0.9031

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(4.697 / (4.697 + 45.373)) / (4.224 / (4.224 + 65.083))
=0.09380867 / 0.06094622
=1.5392

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(231.828 / 331.374) / (256.857 / 366.918)
=0.69959623 / 0.70003925
=0.9994

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 51.727) / 196.683) / ((0 + 60.002) / 209.126)
=0.2629968 / 0.28691793
=0.9166

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(7.097 - 0.041 - 8.819) / 196.683
=-0.009

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Natures Sunshine Products Inc has a M-score of -2.54 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Natures Sunshine Products Inc Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 1.19660.74851.14841.42220.83890.7011.57860.97521.05480.6658
GMI 1.00350.9971.00480.99871.00961.07360.98411.01460.99431.0004
AQI 0.86621.00161.59180.92951.05450.96050.90980.73170.89431.2925
SGI 1.06231.031.01221.0180.91661.02281.05110.99911.00640.9906
DEPI 0.95110.88020.91541.21171.12661.00670.90911.16131.04031.5477
SGAI 0.48981.05612.070.9930.96340.93360.98510.93071.05061.0167
LVGI 1.32311.11230.88561.0190.91640.94051.17040.68611.1990.7476
TATA -0.09-0.1195-0.1278-0.01040.0268-0.12450.0752-0.008-0.0659-0.0223
M-score -2.74-3.30-2.85-2.13-2.50-3.26-1.66-2.51-2.85-2.64

Natures Sunshine Products Inc Quarterly Data

Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15
DSRI 0.85991.07921.05481.16151.00530.85590.66580.7230.81730.8824
GMI 0.97570.95380.99430.9910.99290.98811.00041.01081.01431.0246
AQI 0.71670.78460.89431.10841.21061.11071.29251.06541.01181.1786
SGI 1.00741.01041.00640.98850.98440.98370.99060.97260.94320.9031
DEPI 1.08121.01251.04031.10371.28531.37031.54771.69581.61741.5392
SGAI 1.00661.10451.05061.0431.0381.03971.01671.00991.00720.9994
LVGI 0.85941.10791.1991.1311.09560.7450.74760.77440.79570.9166
TATA -0.065-0.0671-0.0659-0.0021-0.0091-0.022-0.0223-0.0349-0.0205-0.009
M-score -2.98-2.88-2.85-2.35-2.46-2.57-2.64-2.74-2.65-2.54
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