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Plum Creek Timber Co Inc (NYSE:PCL)
Beneish M-Score
-2.71 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Plum Creek Timber Co Inc has a M-score of -2.71 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

PCL' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -4.28   Max: 24.1
Current: -2.71

-4.28
24.1

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Plum Creek Timber Co Inc was 24.10. The lowest was -4.28. And the median was -2.53.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Plum Creek Timber Co Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8989+0.528 * 1.0967+0.404 * 1.0185+0.892 * 1.1883+0.115 * 0.8588
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.8345+4.679 * -0.0785-0.327 * 1.0165
=-2.71

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar15) TTM:Last Year (Mar14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $47 Mil.
Revenue was 406 + 428 + 375 + 356 = $1,565 Mil.
Gross Profit was 91 + 119 + 109 + 109 = $428 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $275 Mil.
Total Assets was $5,086 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,364 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $139 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $119 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $609 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,759 Mil.
Net Income was 42 + 68 + 61 + 55 = $226 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 22 + 22 + 15 + 15 = $74 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 151 + 135 + 133 + 132 = $551 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $44 Mil.
Revenue was 317 + 331 + 366 + 303 = $1,317 Mil.
Gross Profit was 85 + 98 + 122 + 90 = $395 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $302 Mil.
Total Assets was $5,354 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,590 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $125 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $120 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $291 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,197 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(47 / 1565) / (44 / 1317)
=0.03003195 / 0.03340926
=0.8989

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(119 / 1317) / (91 / 1565)
=0.29992407 / 0.27348243
=1.0967

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (275 + 4364) / 5086) / (1 - (302 + 4590) / 5354)
=0.08788832 / 0.08629062
=1.0185

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1565 / 1317
=1.1883

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(125 / (125 + 4590)) / (139 / (139 + 4364))
=0.02651113 / 0.03086831
=0.8588

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(119 / 1565) / (120 / 1317)
=0.07603834 / 0.09111617
=0.8345

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2759 + 609) / 5086) / ((3197 + 291) / 5354)
=0.66220999 / 0.65147553
=1.0165

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(226 - 74 - 551) / 5086
=-0.0785

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Plum Creek Timber Co Inc has a M-score of -2.71 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Plum Creek Timber Co Inc Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 1.06650.88060.80140.69191.36070.95151.35960.68481.31721.1896
GMI 1.06581.00271.03881.16180.90470.97250.99361.09520.94361.0963
AQI 1.21311.20451.01724.55341.15541.0611.00161.00491.19181.0814
SGI 1.03141.03241.02950.96360.80170.91960.98071.14741.00071.1015
DEPI 1.07950.87990.96990.9151.17641.10360.99010.86081.22380.8332
SGAI 1.03721.18981.09171.0461.03290.97461.13780.95381.05960.8488
LVGI 1.06931.06911.081.13421.00461.00681.02911.03270.94910.9909
TATA -0.011-0.0551-0.0189-0.0446-0.0803-0.0659-0.0556-0.0477-0.0437-0.0596
M-score -2.34-2.80-2.74-1.55-2.68-2.88-2.46-2.83-2.31-2.40

Plum Creek Timber Co Inc Quarterly Data

Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15
DSRI 0.68480.9641.0190.8561.31721.12091.08471.24261.18960.8989
GMI 1.09520.94650.90820.88970.94361.06341.07041.13281.09631.0967
AQI 1.00491.00080.99120.94911.19181.32841.31591.41761.08141.0185
SGI 1.14741.09191.09041.04851.00070.98141.01411.01171.10151.1883
DEPI 0.86080.89021.00811.05571.22381.15321.02671.02490.83320.8588
SGAI 0.95381.03681.0360.9871.05961.0190.9780.96350.84880.8345
LVGI 1.03271.00791.01021.02220.94910.93630.92780.92670.99091.0165
TATA -0.0477-0.0407-0.0506-0.0533-0.0437-0.0618-0.0586-0.0523-0.0596-0.0785
M-score -2.83-2.67-2.68-2.90-2.31-2.47-2.47-2.22-2.40-2.71
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