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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Royal Dutch Shell PLC was -1.48. The lowest was -3.20. And the median was -2.70.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Royal Dutch Shell PLC for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
|M||=||-4.84||+||0.92 * DSRI||+||0.528 * GMI||+||0.404 * AQI||+||0.892 * SGI||+||0.115 * DEPI|
|=||-4.84||+||0.92 * 0.9904||+||0.528 * 0.9864||+||0.404 * 1.0148||+||0.892 * 0.9531||+||0.115 * 0.8213|
|-||0.172 * SGAI||+||4.679 * TATA||-||0.327 * LVGI|
|-||0.172 * 1.0411||+||4.679 * -0.0613||-||0.327 * 0.9846|
|This Year (Sep14) TTM:||Last Year (Sep13) TTM:|
|Accounts Receivable was $59,056 Mil.|
Revenue was 109825 + 115274 + 112079 + 111479 = $448,657 Mil.
Gross Profit was 17763 + 22139 + 21065 + 18114 = $79,081 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $105,401 Mil.
Total Assets was $359,411 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $190,842 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $25,137 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $14,400 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $88,429 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $37,065 Mil.
Net Income was 4463 + 5307 + 4509 + 1781 = $16,060 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -462 + -2336 + -351 + -212 = $-3,361 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 12811 + 8641 + 13984 + 6028 = $41,464 Mil.
|Accounts Receivable was $62,561 Mil.
Revenue was 118258 + 114348 + 115514 + 122611 = $470,731 Mil.
Gross Profit was 19000 + 18447 + 22453 + 21942 = $81,842 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $106,659 Mil.
Total Assets was $354,613 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $186,541 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $19,715 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $14,512 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $93,782 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $31,972 Mil.
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
|DSRI||=||(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)||/||(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)|
|=||(59056 / 448657)||/||(62561 / 470731)|
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
|=||(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)||/||(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)|
|=||(22139 / 470731)||/||(17763 / 448657)|
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
|AQI||=||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||(1 - (105401 + 190842) / 359411)||/||(1 - (106659 + 186541) / 354613)|
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
|DEPI||=||(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))||/||(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))|
|=||(19715 / (19715 + 186541))||/||(25137 / (25137 + 190842))|
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
|SGAI||=||(SGA_t / Sales_t)||/||(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)|
|=||(14400 / 448657)||/||(14512 / 470731)|
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage
|LVGI||=||((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||((37065 + 88429) / 359411)||/||((31972 + 93782) / 354613)|
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
|=||(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t||-||CashFlowsfromOperations_t)||/||TotalAssets_t|
|=||(16060 - -3361||-||41464)||/||359411|
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Royal Dutch Shell PLC has a M-score of -2.84 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.
Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations
Royal Dutch Shell PLC Annual Data
Royal Dutch Shell PLC Quarterly Data