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Shire PLC (NAS:SHPG)
Beneish M-Score
-2.51 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Shire PLC has a M-score of -2.51 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

SHPG' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -4.96   Max: -1.96
Current: -2.51

-4.96
-1.96

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Shire PLC was -1.96. The lowest was -4.96. And the median was -2.61.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Shire PLC for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8666+0.528 * 1.0308+0.404 * 1.5338+0.892 * 1.2001+0.115 * 0.7479
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.8507+4.679 * -0.0866-0.327 * 0.7288
=-2.51

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Sep14) TTM:Last Year (Sep13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $1,079 Mil.
Revenue was 1597.1 + 1502.1 + 1346.8 + 1326 = $5,772 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1342.8 + 1225.1 + 1117.3 + 1147.4 = $4,833 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,868 Mil.
Total Assets was $11,541 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $846 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $402 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,903 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $2,002 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $850 Mil.
Net Income was 479.7 + 523.1 + 230.4 + 64 = $1,297 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 6.8 + 3.3 + 4.7 + -2.3 = $13 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 593.4 + 834 + 246.1 + 610.3 = $2,284 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $1,038 Mil.
Revenue was 1212.7 + 1252.2 + 1143.4 + 1201.2 = $4,810 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1032.2 + 1087.9 + 996 + 1034.6 = $4,151 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $3,714 Mil.
Total Assets was $8,388 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $965 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $307 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,864 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $2,845 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1079.3 / 5772) / (1037.8 / 4809.5)
=0.18698891 / 0.21578127
=0.8666

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1225.1 / 4809.5) / (1342.8 / 5772)
=0.8630211 / 0.83724879
=1.0308

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (2868.1 + 845.6) / 11540.5) / (1 - (3713.9 + 965.1) / 8387.9)
=0.67820285 / 0.44217265
=1.5338

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=5772 / 4809.5
=1.2001

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(306.5 / (306.5 + 965.1)) / (402.1 / (402.1 + 845.6))
=0.24103492 / 0.32227298
=0.7479

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1902.7 / 5772) / (1863.6 / 4809.5)
=0.3296431 / 0.38748311
=0.8507

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((850 + 2002.4) / 11540.5) / ((0 + 2844.8) / 8387.9)
=0.24716433 / 0.33915521
=0.7288

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(1297.2 - 12.5 - 2283.8) / 11540.5
=-0.0866

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Shire PLC has a M-score of -2.51 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Shire PLC Annual Data

Dec04Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13
DSRI 0.93631.26360.83861.04750.72121.521.00430.99350.88831.1064
GMI 0.9691.03431.00470.98921.00760.99311.00521.00510.99990.9978
AQI 0.98721.85570.82191.42221.14470.85750.95951.03090.84760.8774
SGI 1.10191.17321.12331.35611.24050.99521.15411.22831.0981.0541
DEPI 0.65571.35370.8970.82191.15771.01991.17140.95890.98450.915
SGAI 1.01131.1641.17970.94320.95910.94810.98510.93421.09930.7411
LVGI 0.6512.16811.16051.38130.9040.93710.95120.89120.94460.5789
TATA -0.0563-0.0402-0.0994-0.4751-0.1554-0.0424-0.0696-0.0355-0.0868-0.0954
M-score -2.66-2.28-3.15-4.31-3.13-2.23-2.64-2.39-2.96-2.66

Shire PLC Quarterly Data

Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14
DSRI 0.85250.89630.88830.92091.10111.15491.10641.11741.00170.8666
GMI 1.00460.99710.99990.99651.00081.00020.99781.01191.02751.0308
AQI 0.83120.84360.84760.90110.97180.95170.87741.55461.47491.5338
SGI 1.19981.14061.0981.04251.01941.04051.05411.10421.1471.2001
DEPI 0.87520.92320.98451.00811.04081.04560.9150.87540.79390.7479
SGAI 0.96640.97371.09931.04080.97360.94040.74110.7630.8130.8507
LVGI 0.91890.88520.94460.94550.92310.93970.57890.86220.78670.7288
TATA -0.0574-0.0639-0.0868-0.0935-0.061-0.0684-0.0954-0.066-0.0912-0.0866
M-score -2.75-2.78-2.96-2.98-2.63-2.61-2.66-2.29-2.49-2.51
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