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Total SA (NYSE:TOT)
Beneish M-Score
-2.86 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Total SA has a M-score of -2.83 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

TOT' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.54   Max: -1.34
Current: -2.86

-4.54
-1.34

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Total SA was -1.34. The lowest was -4.54. And the median was -2.85.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Total SA for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.1602+0.528 * 0.8953+0.404 * 1.0663+0.892 * 0.7135+0.115 * 1.2104
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.4495+4.679 * -0.0731-0.327 * 0.9675
=-2.83

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Jun16) TTM:Last Year (Jun15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $11,933 Mil.
Revenue was 31711 + 27522 + 32292 + 34897 = $126,422 Mil.
Gross Profit was 11163 + 9883 + 10418 + 10657 = $42,121 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $67,732 Mil.
Total Assets was $225,346 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $111,420 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $17,893 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $6,136 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $50,287 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $41,668 Mil.
Net Income was 2088 + 1606 + -1626 + 1079 = $3,147 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 962 + 964 + 1596 + 506 = $4,028 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 2882 + 1881 + 4838 + 5989 = $15,590 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $14,415 Mil.
Revenue was 39269 + 36963 + 46734 + 54222 = $177,188 Mil.
Gross Profit was 12916 + 13257 + 11090 + 15594 = $52,857 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $79,375 Mil.
Total Assets was $234,476 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $110,023 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $22,135 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $19,134 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $55,528 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $43,363 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(11933 / 126422) / (14415 / 177188)
=0.09439022 / 0.08135427
=1.1602

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(52857 / 177188) / (42121 / 126422)
=0.29831027 / 0.33317777
=0.8953

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (67732 + 111420) / 225346) / (1 - (79375 + 110023) / 234476)
=0.20499144 / 0.19224995
=1.0663

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=126422 / 177188
=0.7135

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(22135 / (22135 + 110023)) / (17893 / (17893 + 111420))
=0.16748891 / 0.13836969
=1.2104

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(6136 / 126422) / (19134 / 177188)
=0.04853586 / 0.107987
=0.4495

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((41668 + 50287) / 225346) / ((43363 + 55528) / 234476)
=0.40806138 / 0.42175319
=0.9675

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(3147 - 4028 - 15590) / 225346
=-0.0731

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Total SA has a M-score of -2.83 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Total SA Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 0.78241.13210.80481.33020.89180.76620.97050.96890.72561.0006
GMI 1.0780.83191.16490.83521.10751.08411.27421.00711.05730.8543
AQI 1.01050.9891.0070.9751.07391.01090.92951.03020.93261.0188
SGI 1.26411.32171.08240.7511.12581.13011.00720.98320.89450.6765
DEPI 1.01550.97041.06060.97670.85091.19250.8991.12040.71771.0883
SGAI 1.00440.7450.96751.33390.84870.89431.15741.0161.05831.2695
LVGI 1.01890.9820.95930.98711.00760.99410.98280.97061.07150.9853
TATA -0.06070.13780.08320.10660.06210.0535-0.0837-0.089-0.1118-0.0882
M-score -2.69-1.47-2.08-2.05-2.08-2.24-2.81-2.90-3.41-3.28

Total SA Quarterly Data

Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16
DSRI 0.85030.86610.84150.71840.76950.84940.85151.00061.14541.1602
GMI 1.02921.04221.03161.05721.02120.97980.95170.84530.87740.8953
AQI 0.98080.96560.95550.93320.98270.93570.98631.01881.01551.0663
SGI 0.97460.98260.98040.93330.860.78210.70460.67650.69020.7135
DEPI 1.16931.13851.17140.69380.65450.67820.61931.08831.26641.2104
SGAI 1.03641.35841.06041.04441.05140.82331.18730.84890.86710.4495
LVGI 0.9781.04091.04651.07251.03181.0090.98790.98530.98120.9675
TATA -0.0904-0.0899-0.0808-0.1116-0.1127-0.1089-0.1115-0.0884-0.0785-0.0731
M-score -3.04-3.09-3.03-3.38-3.40-3.37-3.50-3.21-2.99-2.83
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