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Total SA (NYSE:TOT)
Beneish M-Score
-2.71 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Total SA has a M-score of -2.73 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

TOT' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.39   Max: -1.34
Current: -2.71

-4.39
-1.34

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Total SA was -1.34. The lowest was -4.39. And the median was -2.80.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Total SA for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.1961+0.528 * 0.8809+0.404 * 1.0513+0.892 * 0.7814+0.115 * 1.2643
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.5993+4.679 * -0.0625-0.327 * 0.9949
=-2.73

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Sep16) TTM:Last Year (Sep15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $11,501 Mil.
Revenue was 31825 + 31711 + 27522 + 32292 = $123,350 Mil.
Gross Profit was 10602 + 11163 + 9883 + 10418 = $42,066 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $68,664 Mil.
Total Assets was $229,505 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $113,433 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $17,671 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $6,136 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $50,982 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $44,450 Mil.
Net Income was 1954 + 2088 + 1606 + -1626 = $4,022 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 576 + 962 + 964 + 1527 = $4,029 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 4740 + 2882 + 1881 + 4838 = $14,341 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $12,306 Mil.
Revenue was 34897 + 39269 + 36963 + 46734 = $157,863 Mil.
Gross Profit was 10657 + 12916 + 12759 + 11090 = $47,422 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $75,221 Mil.
Total Assets was $229,125 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $108,886 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $22,366 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $13,103 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $52,890 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $42,873 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(11501 / 123350) / (12306 / 157863)
=0.09323875 / 0.07795367
=1.1961

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(47422 / 157863) / (42066 / 123350)
=0.30039971 / 0.34102959
=0.8809

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (68664 + 113433) / 229505) / (1 - (75221 + 108886) / 229125)
=0.20656631 / 0.19647791
=1.0513

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=123350 / 157863
=0.7814

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(22366 / (22366 + 108886)) / (17671 / (17671 + 113433))
=0.17040502 / 0.13478612
=1.2643

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(6136 / 123350) / (13103 / 157863)
=0.04974463 / 0.08300235
=0.5993

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((44450 + 50982) / 229505) / ((42873 + 52890) / 229125)
=0.41581665 / 0.4179509
=0.9949

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(4022 - 4029 - 14341) / 229505
=-0.0625

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Total SA has a M-score of -2.73 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Total SA Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 0.78241.13210.80481.33020.71771.08120.87760.94970.72091.0006
GMI 1.0780.83191.16490.83521.10751.29551.03851.03411.05730.8543
AQI 1.01050.9891.0070.9751.09740.98180.92321.04450.93321.0188
SGI 1.26411.32171.08240.7511.12581.01911.0850.97330.930.6765
DEPI 1.01550.97041.06060.97670.8421.20510.921.1320.69421.0883
SGAI 1.00440.7450.96751.33390.84870.98911.05171.00951.05971.2695
LVGI 1.01890.9820.95930.98711.00760.99620.98360.96681.07250.9853
TATA -0.06070.13780.08320.10660.0584-0.0649-0.0823-0.0856-0.1134-0.0882
M-score -2.69-1.47-2.08-2.05-2.25-2.52-2.93-2.89-3.40-3.28

Total SA Quarterly Data

Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16
DSRI 0.87390.84370.76630.84550.85151.00061.14541.16021.1961
GMI 1.04231.03161.03010.9890.96170.85430.86960.88690.8809
AQI 0.96580.9560.98270.93570.98631.01881.01551.06631.0513
SGI 0.97040.9770.86350.78570.70460.67650.69020.71350.7814
DEPI 1.1481.17120.6510.67450.61931.08831.26641.21041.2643
SGAI 0.97631.79943.19731.14271.27440.43280.43730.65630.5993
LVGI 1.0411.04721.03181.0090.98790.98530.98120.96750.9949
TATA -0.0883-0.0815-0.1135-0.1095-0.1116-0.0881-0.0783-0.0728-0.0625
M-score -3.02-3.16-3.77-3.42-3.52-3.14-2.92-2.87-2.73
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