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Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc (NAS:ULTA)
Beneish M-Score
-2.54 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc has a M-score of -2.54 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

ULTA' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -4.08   Max: -2.54
Current: -2.54

-4.08
-2.54

During the past 12 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc was -2.54. The lowest was -4.08. And the median was -3.23.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.1332+0.528 * 1.0018+0.404 * 1.1211+0.892 * 1.1988+0.115 * 0.9798
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0315+4.679 * -0.0844-0.327 * 1.0086
=-2.54

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Jul14) TTM:Last Year (Jul13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $42 Mil.
Revenue was 734.236 + 713.77 + 868.082 + 618.781 = $2,935 Mil.
Gross Profit was 259.342 + 245.953 + 293.561 + 231.661 = $1,031 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,128 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,780 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $647 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $118 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $665 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $300 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0 Mil.
Net Income was 60.794 + 49.953 + 70.682 + 45.43 = $227 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0.418 + 0 + 0.138 + 0.014 = $1 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 59.535 + 73.693 + 227.592 + 15.613 = $376 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $31 Mil.
Revenue was 600.998 + 582.712 + 758.835 + 505.64 = $2,448 Mil.
Gross Profit was 212.077 + 203.949 + 259.644 + 185.493 = $861 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $847 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,392 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $542 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $96 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $538 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $233 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(42.11 / 2934.869) / (30.998 / 2448.185)
=0.01434817 / 0.01266162
=1.1332

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(245.953 / 2448.185) / (259.342 / 2934.869)
=0.35175569 / 0.35112879
=1.0018

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1127.693 + 646.89) / 1779.812) / (1 - (846.787 + 541.557) / 1391.992)
=0.00293795 / 0.0026207
=1.1211

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=2934.869 / 2448.185
=1.1988

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(96.366 / (96.366 + 541.557)) / (117.908 / (117.908 + 646.89))
=0.15106212 / 0.15416881
=0.9798

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(664.632 / 2934.869) / (537.505 / 2448.185)
=0.22646053 / 0.21955244
=1.0315

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 300.141) / 1779.812) / ((0 + 232.745) / 1391.992)
=0.16863635 / 0.16720283
=1.0086

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(226.859 - 0.57 - 376.433) / 1779.812
=-0.0844

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc has a M-score of -2.54 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc Annual Data

Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14
DSRI 0.89920.92490.74420.9422
GMI 0.96631.00161.02851.0015
AQI 0.89680.658201.1921
SGI 1.3041.2081.18911.2028
DEPI 0.92571.08270.95651.0201
SGAI 1.03281.00530.99961.0436
LVGI 0.9830.99980.90630.9603
TATA -0.0879-0.0363-0.0878-0.0781
M-score -2.78-2.66-3.32-2.63

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrances Inc Quarterly Data

Apr12Jul12Oct12Jan13Apr13Jul13Oct13Jan14Apr14Jul14
DSRI 0.94220.74231.1332
GMI 1.00150.99921.0018
AQI 1.19211.0551.1211
SGI 1.20281.2031.1988
DEPI 1.02010.99480.9798
SGAI 1.03811.05041.0315
LVGI 0.96030.95531.0086
TATA -0.078-0.087-0.0844
M-score -2.63-2.92-2.54
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