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Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc (NAS:ULTA)
Beneish M-Score
-2.57 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc has a M-score of -2.57 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

ULTA' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.06   Max: 10000000
Current: -2.57

-4.06
10000000

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc was 10000000.00. The lowest was -4.06. And the median was -2.83.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0215+0.528 * 0.9868+0.404 * 1.1233+0.892 * 1.2162+0.115 * 0.9417
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0056+4.679 * -0.0583-0.327 * 1.21
=-2.57

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Apr16) TTM:Last Year (Apr15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $54 Mil.
Revenue was 1073.716 + 1268.295 + 910.7 + 876.999 = $4,130 Mil.
Gross Profit was 390.43 + 439.036 + 335.638 + 306.475 = $1,472 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,338 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,219 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $871 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $175 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $926 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $496 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0 Mil.
Net Income was 91.976 + 107.823 + 71.07 + 74.169 = $345 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 166.931 + 226.901 + 23.277 + 57.404 = $475 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $44 Mil.
Revenue was 868.122 + 1047.641 + 745.722 + 734.236 = $3,396 Mil.
Gross Profit was 303.184 + 349.737 + 281.755 + 259.342 = $1,194 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,325 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,078 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $745 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $139 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $757 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $384 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(54.112 / 4129.71) / (43.558 / 3395.721)
=0.0131031 / 0.01282732
=1.0215

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1194.018 / 3395.721) / (1471.579 / 4129.71)
=0.35162429 / 0.35633955
=0.9868

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1338.417 + 870.835) / 2218.95) / (1 - (1325.201 + 744.665) / 2077.951)
=0.00437054 / 0.00389085
=1.1233

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4129.71 / 3395.721
=1.2162

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(139.258 / (139.258 + 744.665)) / (174.969 / (174.969 + 870.835))
=0.1575454 / 0.16730573
=0.9417

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(925.7 / 4129.71) / (756.902 / 3395.721)
=0.22415618 / 0.22289876
=1.0056

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 495.734) / 2218.95) / ((0 + 383.664) / 2077.951)
=0.22340927 / 0.18463573
=1.21

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(345.038 - 0 - 474.513) / 2218.95
=-0.0583

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc has a M-score of -2.57 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc Annual Data

Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14Jan15Jan16
DSRI 0.92490.74420.94220.91831.0237
GMI 1.00161.02851.00151.0050.9941
AQI 0.658201.19211.06451.2801
SGI 1.2081.18911.20281.21371.2106
DEPI 1.08270.95651.02010.97540.9523
SGAI 1.00530.99961.04360.97520.9985
LVGI 0.99980.90630.96031.08920.9795
TATA -0.046-0.0878-0.0781-0.0703-0.025
M-score -2.71-3.32-2.63-2.69-2.28

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc Quarterly Data

Jan14Apr14Jul14Oct14Jan15Apr15Jul15Oct15Jan16Apr16
DSRI 0.94220.74231.13320.88090.91831.34490.89180.85251.02371.0215
GMI 1.00150.99921.00181.00371.0050.99811.00111.00930.99410.9868
AQI 1.19211.0551.12111.04461.06451.37681.27421.26941.28011.1233
SGI 1.20281.2031.19881.19541.21371.21211.20571.20961.21061.2162
DEPI 1.02010.99480.97980.95050.97540.99280.98960.99230.95230.9417
SGAI 1.0181.01440.9980.98310.97520.9720.97780.97840.99851.0056
LVGI 0.96030.95531.00861.02641.08921.03741.03751.06330.97951.21
TATA -0.0779-0.0871-0.0843-0.0695-0.0705-0.0563-0.048-0.0446-0.025-0.0583
M-score -2.63-2.91-2.53-2.73-2.69-2.09-2.52-2.54-2.28-2.57
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