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Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc (NAS:ULTA)
Beneish M-Score
-2.52 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc has a M-score of -2.52 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

ULTA' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.06   Max: 10000000
Current: -2.52

-4.06
10000000

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc was 10000000.00. The lowest was -4.06. And the median was -2.83.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0126+0.528 * 0.9781+0.404 * 1.1711+0.892 * 1.2214+0.115 * 0.9266
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0227+4.679 * -0.0472-0.327 * 1.2201
=-2.52

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Jul16) TTM:Last Year (Jul15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $56 Mil.
Revenue was 1069.215 + 1073.716 + 1268.295 + 910.7 = $4,322 Mil.
Gross Profit was 384.838 + 390.43 + 439.036 + 335.638 = $1,550 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,376 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,306 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $920 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $186 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $979 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $492 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0 Mil.
Net Income was 90.004 + 91.976 + 107.823 + 71.07 = $361 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 52.699 + 166.931 + 226.901 + 23.277 = $470 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $45 Mil.
Revenue was 876.999 + 868.122 + 1047.641 + 745.722 = $3,538 Mil.
Gross Profit was 306.475 + 303.184 + 349.737 + 281.755 = $1,241 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,316 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,116 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $792 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $146 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $784 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $370 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(55.998 / 4321.926) / (45.277 / 3538.484)
=0.01295672 / 0.01279559
=1.0126

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1241.151 / 3538.484) / (1549.942 / 4321.926)
=0.35075784 / 0.35862298
=0.9781

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1376.082 + 919.597) / 2305.788) / (1 - (1316.085 + 791.904) / 2115.91)
=0.00438418 / 0.00374354
=1.1711

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4321.926 / 3538.484
=1.2214

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(146.13 / (146.13 + 791.904)) / (185.863 / (185.863 + 919.597))
=0.15578327 / 0.16813182
=0.9266

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(978.754 / 4321.926) / (783.554 / 3538.484)
=0.22646246 / 0.22143777
=1.0227

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 492.245) / 2305.788) / ((0 + 370.214) / 2115.91)
=0.21348233 / 0.1749668
=1.2201

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(360.873 - 0 - 469.808) / 2305.788
=-0.0472

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc has a M-score of -2.52 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc Annual Data

Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14Jan15Jan16
DSRI 0.92490.74420.94220.91831.0237
GMI 1.00161.02851.00151.0050.9941
AQI 0.658201.19211.06451.2801
SGI 1.2081.18911.20281.21371.2106
DEPI 1.08270.95651.02010.97540.9523
SGAI 1.00530.99961.01290.97520.9985
LVGI 0.99980.90630.96031.08920.9795
TATA -0.046-0.0878-0.0779-0.0703-0.025
M-score -2.71-3.32-2.63-2.69-2.28

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc Quarterly Data

Apr14Jul14Oct14Jan15Apr15Jul15Oct15Jan16Apr16Jul16
DSRI 0.74231.13320.88090.91831.34490.89180.85251.02371.02151.0126
GMI 0.99921.00181.00371.0050.99811.00111.00930.99410.98680.9781
AQI 1.0551.12111.04461.06451.37681.27421.26941.28011.12331.1711
SGI 1.2031.19881.19541.21371.21211.20571.20961.21061.21621.2214
DEPI 0.99480.97980.95050.97540.99280.98960.99230.95230.94170.9266
SGAI 1.01440.9980.98310.97520.9720.97780.97840.99851.00561.0227
LVGI 0.95531.00861.02641.08921.03741.03751.06330.97951.211.2201
TATA -0.0871-0.0843-0.0695-0.0705-0.0563-0.048-0.0446-0.025-0.0583-0.0472
M-score -2.91-2.53-2.73-2.69-2.09-2.52-2.54-2.28-2.57-2.52
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