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Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc (NAS:ULTA)
Beneish M-Score
-2.56 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc has a M-score of -2.56 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

ULTA' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.06   Max: 10000000
Current: -2.56

-4.06
10000000

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc was 10000000.00. The lowest was -4.06. And the median was -2.83.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0517+0.528 * 0.9677+0.404 * 1.2524+0.892 * 1.2265+0.115 * 0.9428
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0344+4.679 * -0.0676-0.327 * 1.2551
=-2.56

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Oct16) TTM:Last Year (Oct15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $66 Mil.
Revenue was 1131.232 + 1069.215 + 1073.716 + 1268.295 = $4,542 Mil.
Gross Profit was 427.053 + 384.838 + 390.43 + 439.036 = $1,641 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,538 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,551 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,002 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $197 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,041 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $655 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0 Mil.
Net Income was 87.562 + 90.004 + 91.976 + 107.823 = $377 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 103.388 + 52.699 + 166.931 + 226.901 = $550 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $51 Mil.
Revenue was 910.7 + 876.999 + 868.122 + 1047.641 = $3,703 Mil.
Gross Profit was 335.638 + 306.475 + 303.184 + 349.737 = $1,295 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,388 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,240 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $844 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $155 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $821 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $458 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(65.708 / 4542.458) / (50.939 / 3703.462)
=0.0144653 / 0.01375443
=1.0517

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1295.034 / 3703.462) / (1641.357 / 4542.458)
=0.349682 / 0.36133675
=0.9677

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1538.465 + 1001.938) / 2551.201) / (1 - (1388.19 + 844.238) / 2239.998)
=0.00423252 / 0.00337947
=1.2524

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4542.458 / 3703.462
=1.2265

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(154.76 / (154.76 + 844.238)) / (197.012 / (197.012 + 1001.938))
=0.15491523 / 0.16432045
=0.9428

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1041.277 / 4542.458) / (820.756 / 3703.462)
=0.22923206 / 0.22161858
=1.0344

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 654.64) / 2551.201) / ((0 + 457.976) / 2239.998)
=0.25660071 / 0.20445375
=1.2551

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(377.365 - 0 - 549.919) / 2551.201
=-0.0676

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc has a M-score of -2.56 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc Annual Data

Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14Jan15Jan16
DSRI 0.92490.74420.94220.91831.0237
GMI 1.00161.02851.00151.0050.9941
AQI 0.658201.19211.06451.2801
SGI 1.2081.18911.20281.21371.2106
DEPI 1.08270.95651.02010.97540.9523
SGAI 1.00530.99961.01290.97520.9985
LVGI 0.99980.90630.96031.08920.9795
TATA -0.046-0.0878-0.0779-0.0703-0.025
M-score -2.71-3.32-2.63-2.69-2.28

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc Quarterly Data

Jul14Oct14Jan15Apr15Jul15Oct15Jan16Apr16Jul16Oct16
DSRI 1.13320.88090.91831.34490.89180.85251.02371.02151.01261.0517
GMI 1.00181.00371.0050.99811.00111.00930.99410.98680.97810.9677
AQI 1.12111.04461.06451.37681.27421.26941.28011.12331.17111.2524
SGI 1.19881.19541.21371.21211.20571.20961.21061.21621.22141.2265
DEPI 0.97980.95050.97540.99280.98960.99230.95230.94170.92660.9428
SGAI 0.9980.98310.97520.9720.97780.97840.99851.00561.02271.0344
LVGI 1.00861.02641.08921.03741.03751.06330.97951.211.22011.2551
TATA -0.0843-0.0695-0.0705-0.0563-0.048-0.0446-0.025-0.0583-0.0472-0.0676
M-score -2.53-2.73-2.69-2.09-2.52-2.54-2.28-2.57-2.52-2.56
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