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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc was 10000000.00. The lowest was -4.06. And the median was -2.83.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
|M||=||-4.84||+||0.92 * DSRI||+||0.528 * GMI||+||0.404 * AQI||+||0.892 * SGI||+||0.115 * DEPI|
|=||-4.84||+||0.92 * 1.0517||+||0.528 * 0.9677||+||0.404 * 1.2524||+||0.892 * 1.2265||+||0.115 * 0.9428|
|-||0.172 * SGAI||+||4.679 * TATA||-||0.327 * LVGI|
|-||0.172 * 1.0344||+||4.679 * -0.0676||-||0.327 * 1.2551|
|This Year (Oct16) TTM:||Last Year (Oct15) TTM:|
|Accounts Receivable was $66 Mil.|
Revenue was 1131.232 + 1069.215 + 1073.716 + 1268.295 = $4,542 Mil.
Gross Profit was 427.053 + 384.838 + 390.43 + 439.036 = $1,641 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,538 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,551 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,002 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $197 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,041 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $655 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0 Mil.
Net Income was 87.562 + 90.004 + 91.976 + 107.823 = $377 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 103.388 + 52.699 + 166.931 + 226.901 = $550 Mil.
|Accounts Receivable was $51 Mil.
Revenue was 910.7 + 876.999 + 868.122 + 1047.641 = $3,703 Mil.
Gross Profit was 335.638 + 306.475 + 303.184 + 349.737 = $1,295 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,388 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,240 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $844 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $155 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $821 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $458 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0 Mil.
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
|DSRI||=||(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)||/||(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)|
|=||(65.708 / 4542.458)||/||(50.939 / 3703.462)|
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
|=||(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)||/||(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)|
|=||(1295.034 / 3703.462)||/||(1641.357 / 4542.458)|
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
|AQI||=||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||(1 - (1538.465 + 1001.938) / 2551.201)||/||(1 - (1388.19 + 844.238) / 2239.998)|
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
|DEPI||=||(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))||/||(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))|
|=||(154.76 / (154.76 + 844.238))||/||(197.012 / (197.012 + 1001.938))|
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
|SGAI||=||(SGA_t / Sales_t)||/||(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)|
|=||(1041.277 / 4542.458)||/||(820.756 / 3703.462)|
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage
|LVGI||=||((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||((0 + 654.64) / 2551.201)||/||((0 + 457.976) / 2239.998)|
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
|=||(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t||-||CashFlowsfromOperations_t)||/||TotalAssets_t|
|=||(377.365 - 0||-||549.919)||/||2551.201|
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc has a M-score of -2.56 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.
Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc Annual Data
Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc Quarterly Data