Switch to:
Ultra Petroleum Corp (NYSE:UPL)
Beneish M-Score
-1.88 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -1.88 signals that the company is a manipulator.

UPL' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -10000000   Max: -0.57
Current: -1.88

-10000000
-0.57

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ultra Petroleum Corp was -0.57. The lowest was -10000000.00. And the median was -3.03.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ultra Petroleum Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0763+0.528 * 0.9646+0.404 * 2.0835+0.892 * 1.3178+0.115 * 1.2062
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.6468+4.679 * -0.0647-0.327 * 0.853
=-1.88

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Dec14) TTM:Last Year (Dec13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $144 Mil.
Revenue was 319.05 + 288.608 + 296.063 + 326.299 = $1,230 Mil.
Gross Profit was 216.44 + 201.461 + 212.712 + 240.996 = $872 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $277 Mil.
Total Assets was $4,226 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,891 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $293 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $19 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $446 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,278 Mil.
Net Income was 209.726 + 125.357 + 106.049 + 101.715 = $543 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 124.057 + 34.634 + -12.414 + -42.683 = $104 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 197.422 + 168.511 + 171.076 + 175.575 = $713 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $102 Mil.
Revenue was 225.197 + 221.205 + 261.376 + 225.626 = $933 Mil.
Gross Profit was 152.319 + 148.277 + 184.373 + 153.061 = $638 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $129 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,785 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $2,639 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $243 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $22 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $407 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,470 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(144.417 / 1230.02) / (101.82 / 933.404)
=0.11741029 / 0.1090846
=1.0763

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(201.461 / 933.404) / (216.44 / 1230.02)
=0.68355182 / 0.70861368
=0.9646

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (277.138 + 3891.123) / 4225.69) / (1 - (128.631 + 2638.52) / 2785.319)
=0.01359044 / 0.00652277
=2.0835

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1230.02 / 933.404
=1.3178

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(243.39 / (243.39 + 2638.52)) / (292.951 / (292.951 + 3891.123))
=0.08445441 / 0.07001573
=1.2062

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(19.069 / 1230.02) / (22.373 / 933.404)
=0.015503 / 0.02396926
=0.6468

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((3278 + 445.718) / 4225.69) / ((2470 + 407.476) / 2785.319)
=0.88120946 / 1.03308669
=0.853

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(542.847 - 103.594 - 712.584) / 4225.69
=-0.0647

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -1.88 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Ultra Petroleum Corp Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 1.02381.38890.48741.43420.87561.05540.85990.81921.0763
GMI 1.00791.02690.98041.09060.8441.16841.13020.97760.9646
AQI -2.95849829968E+130.33560.646913.01260.14681.05952.00711.12632.0835
SGI 1.13351.1141.91370.61491.46891.1250.73511.15241.3178
DEPI 0.87880.92661.08640.74581.39790.96290.42062.0391.2062
SGAI 0.92060.79970.67171.88650.83850.95031.31180.77340.6468
LVGI 2.37111.08391.24531.44581.010.98582.22950.85440.853
TATA -0.1613-0.1422-0.1799-0.5764-0.188-0.1837-1.4388-0.0712-0.0647
M-score -11,952,333,130,696.60-2.94-3.15-0.55-3.41-3.06-9.62-2.60-1.88

Ultra Petroleum Corp Quarterly Data

Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14
DSRI 0.62640.85991.20191.90020.82270.81920.94950.99611.26991.0763
GMI 1.09321.06761.17611.11351.08871.07930.95730.97840.96840.9646
AQI 1.71082.00712.03910.28630.52251.12631.10391.081.47092.0835
SGI 0.80820.73510.7560.93771.07161.15241.27751.18681.22781.3178
DEPI 0.46670.42060.50920.98771.31132.0391.82151.55621.77191.2062
SGAI 2.31382.41210.76610.55850.42980.42060.68360.65820.79640.6468
LVGI 1.93272.22952.22551.32581.0490.85440.82650.87180.86920.853
TATA -0.9914-1.4388-1.3152-0.6977-0.3639-0.0712-0.0764-0.0754-0.0605-0.0647
M-score -7.89-9.85-8.57-5.23-4.31-2.48-2.41-2.48-1.97-1.88
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
Free 7-day Trial
FEEDBACK