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Ultra Petroleum Corp (NYSE:UPL)
Beneish M-Score
-3.28 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -3.28 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

UPL' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -10000000   Max: 10000000
Current: -3.28

-10000000
10000000

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ultra Petroleum Corp was 10000000.00. The lowest was -10000000.00. And the median was -3.11.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ultra Petroleum Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9161+0.528 * 1.1357+0.404 * 0.8742+0.892 * 0.8527+0.115 * 0.7757
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.8272+4.679 * -0.1363-0.327 * 0.9488
=-3.28

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Sep15) TTM:Last Year (Sep14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $90.3 Mil.
Revenue was 222.503 + 207.998 + 219.309 + 319.05 = $968.9 Mil.
Gross Profit was 149.512 + 136.649 + 153.249 + 251.161 = $690.6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $148.7 Mil.
Total Assets was $4,192.0 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,017.1 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $367.9 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $15.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $330.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,346.0 Mil.
Net Income was -3.096 + -24.673 + 25.189 + 209.726 = $207.1 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 11.744 + -1.819 + 35.873 + 124.057 = $169.9 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 167.881 + 121.525 + 121.799 + 197.422 = $608.6 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $115.5 Mil.
Revenue was 288.608 + 296.063 + 326.299 + 225.197 = $1,136.2 Mil.
Gross Profit was 230.266 + 242.382 + 272.003 + 175.077 = $919.7 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $136.9 Mil.
Total Assets was $4,003.9 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,838.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $267.2 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $21.2 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $374.5 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,326.0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(90.257 / 968.86) / (115.536 / 1136.167)
=0.09315794 / 0.10168928
=0.9161

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(136.649 / 1136.167) / (149.512 / 968.86)
=0.80950072 / 0.71276655
=1.1357

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (148.733 + 4017.136) / 4191.965) / (1 - (136.877 + 3838.537) / 4003.927)
=0.00622524 / 0.00712126
=0.8742

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=968.86 / 1136.167
=0.8527

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(267.207 / (267.207 + 3838.537)) / (367.903 / (367.903 + 4017.136))
=0.06508126 / 0.0838996
=0.7757

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(14.962 / 968.86) / (21.212 / 1136.167)
=0.01544289 / 0.01866979
=0.8272

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((3346 + 330.02) / 4191.965) / ((3326 + 374.457) / 4003.927)
=0.87692049 / 0.92420691
=0.9488

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(207.146 - 169.855 - 608.627) / 4191.965
=-0.1363

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -3.28 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Ultra Petroleum Corp Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 1.02381.38890.48741.43420.87561.05540.85990.81921.0763
GMI 1.00791.02691.02341.1380.9270.97661.13020.8540.9666
AQI -2.95849829968E+130.33560.646913.01260.14681.05952.00711.12632.0835
SGI 1.13351.1141.91370.61491.46891.1250.73511.15241.3178
DEPI 0.87880.92661.08640.74581.39790.96290.42062.0391.2062
SGAI 0.92060.79970.67171.88650.83850.95031.31180.77340.6468
LVGI 2.37111.08391.24531.44581.010.98582.22950.85440.853
TATA -0.1613-0.1422-0.1799-0.5764-0.188-0.1837-1.4388-0.0712-0.0647
M-score -11,952,333,130,696.60-2.94-3.12-0.52-3.37-3.16-9.62-2.66-1.88

Ultra Petroleum Corp Quarterly Data

Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15
DSRI 1.90020.82270.81920.94950.99611.26991.07630.71560.80560.9161
GMI 0.94190.84690.91910.90180.94750.96830.99151.0251.08071.1357
AQI 0.28630.52251.12631.10391.081.47092.08352.40811.85460.8742
SGI 0.93771.07161.15241.27751.18681.22781.31781.0860.96840.8527
DEPI 0.98771.31132.0391.82151.55621.77191.20621.09031.0130.7757
SGAI 0.55850.42980.42060.68360.65820.79640.64680.66210.90190.8272
LVGI 1.32581.0490.85440.82650.87180.86920.8530.88060.91860.9488
TATA -0.6977-0.3639-0.0712-0.0764-0.0754-0.0605-0.0647-0.0878-0.1112-0.1363
M-score -5.32-4.44-2.57-2.44-2.50-1.97-1.86-2.39-2.77-3.28
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