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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.
Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -2.48 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ultra Petroleum Corp was -0.57. The lowest was -10000000.00. And the median was -3.41.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Ultra Petroleum Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
|M||=||-4.84||+||0.92 * DSRI||+||0.528 * GMI||+||0.404 * AQI||+||0.892 * SGI||+||0.115 * DEPI|
|=||-4.84||+||0.92 * 0.9961||+||0.528 * 0.9784||+||0.404 * 1.08||+||0.892 * 1.1868||+||0.115 * 1.5562|
|-||0.172 * SGAI||+||4.679 * TATA||-||0.327 * LVGI|
|-||0.172 * 0.6582||+||4.679 * -0.0754||-||0.327 * 0.8718|
|This Year (Jun14) TTM:||Last Year (Jun13) TTM:|
|Accounts Receivable was $124.5 Mil.|
Revenue was 296.063 + 326.299 + 225.197 + 221.205 = $1,068.8 Mil.
Gross Profit was 212.712 + 240.996 + 152.319 + 148.277 = $754.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $144.8 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,958.1 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $2,797.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $250.3 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $19.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $497.7 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,337.0 Mil.
Net Income was 106.049 + 101.715 + 41.121 + 63.91 = $312.8 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -12.414 + -42.683 + -23.871 + 4.649 = $-74.3 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 171.076 + 175.575 + 145.567 + 117.937 = $610.2 Mil.
|Accounts Receivable was $105.3 Mil.
Revenue was 261.376 + 225.626 + 217.185 + 196.375 = $900.6 Mil.
Gross Profit was 184.373 + 153.061 + 151.17 + 133.258 = $621.9 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $120.8 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,062.9 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,931.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $283.1 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $24.4 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $387.4 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1,880.0 Mil.
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
|DSRI||=||(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)||/||(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)|
|=||(124.464 / 1068.764)||/||(105.283 / 900.562)|
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
|=||(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)||/||(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)|
|=||(240.996 / 900.562)||/||(212.712 / 1068.764)|
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
|AQI||=||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||(1 - (144.778 + 2797.011) / 2958.133)||/||(1 - (120.814 + 1931.511) / 2062.878)|
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
|DEPI||=||(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))||/||(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))|
|=||(283.107 / (283.107 + 1931.511))||/||(250.321 / (250.321 + 2797.011))|
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
|SGAI||=||(SGA_t / Sales_t)||/||(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)|
|=||(19.039 / 1068.764)||/||(24.374 / 900.562)|
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage
|LVGI||=||((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||((2337 + 497.704) / 2958.133)||/||((1880 + 387.404) / 2062.878)|
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
|=||(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t||-||CashFlowsfromOperations_t)||/||TotalAssets_t|
|=||(312.795 - -74.319||-||610.155)||/||2958.133|
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -2.48 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.
Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations
Ultra Petroleum Corp Annual Data
Ultra Petroleum Corp Quarterly Data