Switch to:
Ultra Petroleum Corp (NYSE:UPL)
Beneish M-Score
-17.25 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -17.25 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

UPL' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -10000000   Max: 10000000
Current: -17.25

-10000000
10000000

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ultra Petroleum Corp was 10000000.00. The lowest was -10000000.00. And the median was -3.11.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ultra Petroleum Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9136+0.528 * 1.2952+0.404 * 0.045+0.892 * 0.6938+0.115 * 0.2814
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.7016+4.679 * -2.8454-0.327 * 3.5644
=-17.25

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar16) TTM:Last Year (Mar15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $66.0 Mil.
Revenue was 159.386 + 189.302 + 222.503 + 207.998 = $779.2 Mil.
Gross Profit was 67.585 + 100.045 + 124.537 + 114.303 = $406.5 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $372.6 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,282.9 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $909.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $337.5 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $8.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $3,993.1 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0.0 Mil.
Net Income was -21.831 + -3204.639 + -3.096 + -24.673 = $-3,254.2 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -4.636 + 0.904 + 11.744 + -1.819 = $6.2 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -3.69 + 104.333 + 167.881 + 121.525 = $390.0 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $104.1 Mil.
Revenue was 219.309 + 319.05 + 288.608 + 296.063 = $1,123.0 Mil.
Gross Profit was 128.192 + 216.44 + 201.461 + 212.712 = $758.8 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $270.1 Mil.
Total Assets was $4,266.0 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,934.2 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $324.4 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $16.4 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $346.2 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,379.0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(66.002 / 779.189) / (104.118 / 1123.03)
=0.08470602 / 0.09271168
=0.9136

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(100.045 / 1123.03) / (67.585 / 779.189)
=0.67567652 / 0.52165777
=1.2952

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (372.611 + 909.475) / 1282.922) / (1 - (270.073 + 3934.174) / 4266.03)
=0.00065164 / 0.01448255
=0.045

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=779.189 / 1123.03
=0.6938

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(324.36 / (324.36 + 3934.174)) / (337.458 / (337.458 + 909.475))
=0.07616706 / 0.27063042
=0.2814

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(7.966 / 779.189) / (16.364 / 1123.03)
=0.01022345 / 0.01457129
=0.7016

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 3993.052) / 1282.922) / ((3379 + 346.179) / 4266.03)
=3.1124667 / 0.87321913
=3.5644

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-3254.239 - 6.193 - 390.049) / 1282.922
=-2.8454

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -17.25 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Ultra Petroleum Corp Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 1.02381.38890.48741.43420.87561.05540.85990.81921.12290.7627
GMI 1.00791.02691.02341.1380.9270.97661.13020.97760.96461.273
AQI -2.95849829968E+130.33560.646913.01260.14681.05952.00711.12632.08350.0633
SGI 1.13351.1141.91370.61491.46891.1250.73511.15241.31780.6822
DEPI 0.87880.92661.08640.74581.39790.96290.42062.0391.20620.2201
SGAI 0.92060.79970.67171.88650.83850.95031.31180.77340.64680.5678
LVGI 2.37111.08391.24531.44581.010.98582.22950.85440.8534.2885
TATA -0.1629-0.1517-0.1799-0.5764-0.188-0.1837-1.4388-0.0712-0.0647-3.8801
M-score -11,952,333,130,696.60-2.99-3.12-0.52-3.37-3.16-9.62-2.60-1.83-22.46

Ultra Petroleum Corp Quarterly Data

Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16
DSRI 0.81920.94950.99611.26991.12290.71560.80560.91610.76270.9136
GMI 1.07930.95730.97840.96840.96461.0391.10611.18011.2731.2952
AQI 1.12631.10391.081.47092.08352.40811.85460.87420.06330.045
SGI 1.15241.27751.18681.22781.31781.0860.96840.85270.68220.6938
DEPI 2.0391.82151.55621.77191.20621.09031.0130.77570.22010.2814
SGAI 0.42060.68360.65820.79640.64680.66210.90190.82720.56780.7016
LVGI 0.85440.82650.87180.86920.8530.88060.91860.94884.28853.5644
TATA -0.0712-0.0764-0.0754-0.0605-0.0647-0.0878-0.1112-0.1363-3.8801-2.8454
M-score -2.48-2.41-2.48-1.97-1.83-2.38-2.76-3.26-22.46-17.25
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)

GuruFocus Premium Plus Membership

FEEDBACK