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Ultra Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:UPL)
Beneish M-Score
-2.62 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Ultra Petroleum Corporation has a M-score of -2.62 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

UPL' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -10000000   Max: -0.57
Current: -2.62

-10000000
-0.57

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ultra Petroleum Corporation was -0.57. The lowest was -10000000.00. And the median was -3.12.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ultra Petroleum Corporation for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8192+0.528 * 0.9855+0.404 * 1.1263+0.892 * 1.1524+0.115 * 2.039
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.8964+4.679 * -0.0712-0.327 * 0.8817
=-2.62

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Dec13) TTM:Last Year (Dec12) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $101.8 Mil.
Revenue was 225.197 + 221.205 + 261.376 + 225.626 = $933.4 Mil.
Gross Profit was 152.319 + 148.277 + 184.373 + 213.742 = $698.7 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $128.6 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,785.3 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $2,638.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $243.4 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $47.7 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $407.5 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,561.9 Mil.
Net Income was 41.121 + 63.91 + 116.377 + 16.433 = $237.8 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -23.871 + 4.649 + 24.732 + -42.067 = $-36.6 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 145.567 + 117.937 + 141.274 + 67.86 = $472.6 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $107.9 Mil.
Revenue was 217.185 + 196.375 + 170.27 + 226.143 = $810.0 Mil.
Gross Profit was 151.17 + 133.258 + 106.532 + 206.591 = $597.6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $125.8 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,007.3 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,869.9 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $389.0 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $46.2 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $514.1 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $1,913.0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(101.82 / 933.404) / (107.855 / 809.973)
=0.1090846 / 0.13315876
=0.8192

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(148.277 / 809.973) / (152.319 / 933.404)
=0.73774188 / 0.74856225
=0.9855

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (128.631 + 2638.52) / 2785.319) / (1 - (125.848 + 1869.872) / 2007.345)
=0.00652277 / 0.00579123
=1.1263

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=933.404 / 809.973
=1.1524

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(388.985 / (388.985 + 1869.872)) / (243.39 / (243.39 + 2638.52))
=0.17220435 / 0.08445441
=2.039

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(47.682 / 933.404) / (46.16 / 809.973)
=0.05108399 / 0.05698955
=0.8964

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2561.932 + 407.476) / 2785.319) / ((1913.038 + 514.092) / 2007.345)
=1.06609261 / 1.20912449
=0.8817

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(237.841 - -36.557 - 472.638) / 2785.319
=-0.0712

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ultra Petroleum Corporation has a M-score of -2.62 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Ultra Petroleum Corporation Annual Data

Dec04Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13
DSRI 0.86711.02381.38890.48741.43420.87561.05540.85990.8192
GMI 0.98621.00791.02690.98041.09060.8441.16841.13020.9776
AQI 0-2.95849829968E+130.33560.646913.01260.14681.05952.00711.1263
SGI 2.13061.13351.1141.91370.61491.46891.1250.73511.1524
DEPI 0.83440.87880.92661.08640.74581.39790.96290.42062.039
SGAI 0.49190.92060.79970.67171.88650.83850.95031.31180.7734
LVGI 0.68412.37111.08391.24531.44581.010.98582.22950.8817
TATA -0.1163-0.1613-0.1422-0.1799-0.5764-0.188-0.1837-1.4388-0.0712
M-score -2.38-11,952,333,130,696.60-2.94-3.15-0.55-3.41-3.06-9.62-2.61

Ultra Petroleum Corporation Quarterly Data

Sep11Dec11Mar12Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13
DSRI 1.27141.05540.730.66240.62640.85991.20191.14880.95670.8192
GMI 0.96981.03951.06761.1041.09321.06761.05811.01450.9940.9855
AQI 0.51321.05950.84014.04541.71082.00712.03910.28630.52251.1263
SGI 1.11861.1251.11110.94550.80820.73510.7560.93771.07161.1524
DEPI 0.97650.96290.91770.55560.46670.42060.50920.98771.31132.039
SGAI 0.98390.95031.61551.97242.31382.41211.51031.13840.93130.8964
LVGI 0.99190.98580.97721.55331.93272.22952.22551.32581.0490.8817
TATA -0.1648-0.1837-0.1944-0.6291-0.9914-1.4388-1.3152-0.6977-0.3639-0.0712
M-score -3.11-3.12-3.68-4.90-7.89-9.85-8.76-6.08-4.32-2.62
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