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Ultra Petroleum Corp (NYSE:UPL)
Beneish M-Score
-2.38 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -2.38 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

UPL' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -10000000   Max: -0.57
Current: -2.38

-10000000
-0.57

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ultra Petroleum Corp was -0.57. The lowest was -10000000.00. And the median was -3.15.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ultra Petroleum Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.7156+0.528 * 1.039+0.404 * 2.4081+0.892 * 1.086+0.115 * 1.0903
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.6621+4.679 * -0.0878-0.327 * 0.8806
=-2.38

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar15) TTM:Last Year (Mar14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $104 Mil.
Revenue was 219.309 + 319.05 + 288.608 + 296.063 = $1,123 Mil.
Gross Profit was 128.192 + 216.44 + 201.461 + 212.712 = $759 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $270 Mil.
Total Assets was $4,266 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,934 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $324 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $16 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $346 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,379 Mil.
Net Income was 25.189 + 209.726 + 125.357 + 106.049 = $466 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 35.873 + 124.057 + 34.634 + -12.414 = $182 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 121.799 + 197.422 + 168.511 + 171.076 = $659 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $134 Mil.
Revenue was 326.299 + 225.197 + 221.205 + 261.376 = $1,034 Mil.
Gross Profit was 240.996 + 152.319 + 148.277 + 184.373 = $726 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $158 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,882 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $2,706 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $245 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $23 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $533 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,325 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(104.118 / 1123.03) / (133.973 / 1034.077)
=0.09271168 / 0.12955805
=0.7156

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(216.44 / 1034.077) / (128.192 / 1123.03)
=0.70204153 / 0.67567652
=1.039

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (270.073 + 3934.174) / 4266.03) / (1 - (158.029 + 2706.481) / 2881.842)
=0.01448255 / 0.00601421
=2.4081

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1123.03 / 1034.077
=1.086

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(245.103 / (245.103 + 2706.481)) / (324.36 / (324.36 + 3934.174))
=0.08304117 / 0.07616706
=1.0903

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(16.364 / 1123.03) / (22.757 / 1034.077)
=0.01457129 / 0.02200707
=0.6621

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((3379 + 346.179) / 4266.03) / ((2325 + 532.839) / 2881.842)
=0.87321913 / 0.99167095
=0.8806

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(466.321 - 182.15 - 658.808) / 4266.03
=-0.0878

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -2.38 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Ultra Petroleum Corp Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 1.02381.38890.48741.43420.87561.05540.85990.81921.0763
GMI 1.00791.02690.98041.09060.8441.16841.13020.97760.9646
AQI -2.95849829968E+130.33560.646913.01260.14681.05952.00711.12632.0835
SGI 1.13351.1141.91370.61491.46891.1250.73511.15241.3178
DEPI 0.87880.92661.08640.74581.39790.96290.42062.0391.2062
SGAI 0.92060.79970.67171.88650.83850.95031.31180.77340.6468
LVGI 2.37111.08391.24531.44581.010.98582.22950.85440.853
TATA -0.1613-0.1422-0.1799-0.5764-0.188-0.1837-1.4388-0.0712-0.0647
M-score -11,952,333,130,696.60-2.94-3.15-0.55-3.41-3.06-9.62-2.60-1.88

Ultra Petroleum Corp Quarterly Data

Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15
DSRI 0.85991.20191.90020.82270.81920.94950.99611.26991.07630.7156
GMI 1.06761.17611.11351.08871.07930.95730.97840.96840.96461.039
AQI 2.00712.03910.28630.52251.12631.10391.081.47092.08352.4081
SGI 0.73510.7560.93771.07161.15241.27751.18681.22781.31781.086
DEPI 0.42060.50920.98771.31132.0391.82151.55621.77191.20621.0903
SGAI 2.41210.76610.55850.42980.42060.68360.65820.79640.64680.6621
LVGI 2.22952.22551.32581.0490.85440.82650.87180.86920.8530.8806
TATA -1.4388-1.3152-0.6977-0.3639-0.0712-0.0764-0.0754-0.0605-0.0647-0.0878
M-score -9.85-8.57-5.23-4.31-2.48-2.41-2.48-1.97-1.88-2.38
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