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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ultra Petroleum Corp was -0.57. The lowest was -10000000.00. And the median was -3.03.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Ultra Petroleum Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
|M||=||-4.84||+||0.92 * DSRI||+||0.528 * GMI||+||0.404 * AQI||+||0.892 * SGI||+||0.115 * DEPI|
|=||-4.84||+||0.92 * 1.0763||+||0.528 * 0.9646||+||0.404 * 2.0835||+||0.892 * 1.3178||+||0.115 * 1.2062|
|-||0.172 * SGAI||+||4.679 * TATA||-||0.327 * LVGI|
|-||0.172 * 0.6468||+||4.679 * -0.0647||-||0.327 * 0.853|
|This Year (Dec14) TTM:||Last Year (Dec13) TTM:|
|Accounts Receivable was $144 Mil.|
Revenue was 319.05 + 288.608 + 296.063 + 326.299 = $1,230 Mil.
Gross Profit was 216.44 + 201.461 + 212.712 + 240.996 = $872 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $277 Mil.
Total Assets was $4,226 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,891 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $293 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $19 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $446 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,278 Mil.
Net Income was 209.726 + 125.357 + 106.049 + 101.715 = $543 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 124.057 + 34.634 + -12.414 + -42.683 = $104 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 197.422 + 168.511 + 171.076 + 175.575 = $713 Mil.
|Accounts Receivable was $102 Mil.
Revenue was 225.197 + 221.205 + 261.376 + 225.626 = $933 Mil.
Gross Profit was 152.319 + 148.277 + 184.373 + 153.061 = $638 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $129 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,785 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $2,639 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $243 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $22 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $407 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,470 Mil.
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
|DSRI||=||(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)||/||(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)|
|=||(144.417 / 1230.02)||/||(101.82 / 933.404)|
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
|=||(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)||/||(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)|
|=||(201.461 / 933.404)||/||(216.44 / 1230.02)|
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
|AQI||=||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||(1 - (277.138 + 3891.123) / 4225.69)||/||(1 - (128.631 + 2638.52) / 2785.319)|
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
|DEPI||=||(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))||/||(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))|
|=||(243.39 / (243.39 + 2638.52))||/||(292.951 / (292.951 + 3891.123))|
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
|SGAI||=||(SGA_t / Sales_t)||/||(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)|
|=||(19.069 / 1230.02)||/||(22.373 / 933.404)|
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage
|LVGI||=||((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||((3278 + 445.718) / 4225.69)||/||((2470 + 407.476) / 2785.319)|
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
|=||(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t||-||CashFlowsfromOperations_t)||/||TotalAssets_t|
|=||(542.847 - 103.594||-||712.584)||/||4225.69|
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -1.88 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations
Ultra Petroleum Corp Annual Data
Ultra Petroleum Corp Quarterly Data