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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ultra Petroleum Corp was 10000000.00. The lowest was -10000000.00. And the median was -3.11.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Ultra Petroleum Corp for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
|M||=||-4.84||+||0.92 * DSRI||+||0.528 * GMI||+||0.404 * AQI||+||0.892 * SGI||+||0.115 * DEPI|
|=||-4.84||+||0.92 * 0.9161||+||0.528 * 1.1357||+||0.404 * 0.8742||+||0.892 * 0.8527||+||0.115 * 0.7757|
|-||0.172 * SGAI||+||4.679 * TATA||-||0.327 * LVGI|
|-||0.172 * 0.8272||+||4.679 * -0.1363||-||0.327 * 0.9488|
|This Year (Sep15) TTM:||Last Year (Sep14) TTM:|
|Accounts Receivable was $90.3 Mil.|
Revenue was 222.503 + 207.998 + 219.309 + 319.05 = $968.9 Mil.
Gross Profit was 149.512 + 136.649 + 153.249 + 251.161 = $690.6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $148.7 Mil.
Total Assets was $4,192.0 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,017.1 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $367.9 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $15.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $330.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,346.0 Mil.
Net Income was -3.096 + -24.673 + 25.189 + 209.726 = $207.1 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 11.744 + -1.819 + 35.873 + 124.057 = $169.9 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 167.881 + 121.525 + 121.799 + 197.422 = $608.6 Mil.
|Accounts Receivable was $115.5 Mil.
Revenue was 288.608 + 296.063 + 326.299 + 225.197 = $1,136.2 Mil.
Gross Profit was 230.266 + 242.382 + 272.003 + 175.077 = $919.7 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $136.9 Mil.
Total Assets was $4,003.9 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,838.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $267.2 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $21.2 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $374.5 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,326.0 Mil.
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
|DSRI||=||(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)||/||(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)|
|=||(90.257 / 968.86)||/||(115.536 / 1136.167)|
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
|=||(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)||/||(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)|
|=||(136.649 / 1136.167)||/||(149.512 / 968.86)|
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
|AQI||=||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||(1 - (148.733 + 4017.136) / 4191.965)||/||(1 - (136.877 + 3838.537) / 4003.927)|
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
|DEPI||=||(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))||/||(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))|
|=||(267.207 / (267.207 + 3838.537))||/||(367.903 / (367.903 + 4017.136))|
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
|SGAI||=||(SGA_t / Sales_t)||/||(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)|
|=||(14.962 / 968.86)||/||(21.212 / 1136.167)|
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage
|LVGI||=||((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||((3346 + 330.02) / 4191.965)||/||((3326 + 374.457) / 4003.927)|
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
|=||(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t||-||CashFlowsfromOperations_t)||/||TotalAssets_t|
|=||(207.146 - 169.855||-||608.627)||/||4191.965|
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Ultra Petroleum Corp has a M-score of -3.28 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.
Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations
Ultra Petroleum Corp Annual Data
Ultra Petroleum Corp Quarterly Data