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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Willis Group Holdings PLC was -2.19. The lowest was -3.34. And the median was -2.43.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Willis Group Holdings PLC for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
|M||=||-4.84||+||0.92 * DSRI||+||0.528 * GMI||+||0.404 * AQI||+||0.892 * SGI||+||0.115 * DEPI|
|=||-4.84||+||0.92 * 1.0343||+||0.528 * 1||+||0.404 * 1.1017||+||0.892 * 1.0088||+||0.115 * 1.015|
|-||0.172 * SGAI||+||4.679 * TATA||-||0.327 * LVGI|
|-||0.172 * 1.0097||+||4.679 * -0.0005||-||0.327 * 0.9892|
|This Year (Jun15) TTM:||Last Year (Jun14) TTM:|
|Accounts Receivable was $1,226 Mil.|
Revenue was 922 + 1087 + 958 + 812 = $3,779 Mil.
Gross Profit was 922 + 1087 + 958 + 812 = $3,779 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $12,946 Mil.
Total Assets was $18,319 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $516 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $149 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $2,297 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $12,495 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,052 Mil.
Net Income was 70 + 210 + 76 + -7 = $349 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 23 + -6 + 18 + -9 = $26 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 71 + -64 + 196 + 129 = $332 Mil.
|Accounts Receivable was $1,175 Mil.
Revenue was 935 + 1097 + 919 + 795 = $3,746 Mil.
Gross Profit was 935 + 1097 + 919 + 795 = $3,746 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $12,072 Mil.
Total Assets was $16,551 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $496 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $146 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $2,255 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $10,984 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,302 Mil.
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
|DSRI||=||(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)||/||(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)|
|=||(1226 / 3779)||/||(1175 / 3746)|
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
|=||(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)||/||(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)|
|=||(1087 / 3746)||/||(922 / 3779)|
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
|AQI||=||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||(1 - (12946 + 516) / 18319)||/||(1 - (12072 + 496) / 16551)|
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
|DEPI||=||(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))||/||(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))|
|=||(146 / (146 + 496))||/||(149 / (149 + 516))|
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
|SGAI||=||(SGA_t / Sales_t)||/||(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)|
|=||(2297 / 3779)||/||(2255 / 3746)|
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage
|LVGI||=||((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||((2052 + 12495) / 18319)||/||((2302 + 10984) / 16551)|
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
|=||(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t||-||CashFlowsfromOperations_t)||/||TotalAssets_t|
|=||(349 - 26||-||332)||/||18319|
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Willis Group Holdings PLC has a M-score of -2.40 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.
Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations
Willis Group Holdings PLC Annual Data
Willis Group Holdings PLC Quarterly Data