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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Willis Group Holdings PLC was -2.19. The lowest was -3.19. And the median was -2.44.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Willis Group Holdings PLC for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
|M||=||-4.84||+||0.92 * DSRI||+||0.528 * GMI||+||0.404 * AQI||+||0.892 * SGI||+||0.115 * DEPI|
|=||-4.84||+||0.92 * 0.9641||+||0.528 * 1||+||0.404 * 1.0188||+||0.892 * 1.0402||+||0.115 * 1.0189|
|-||0.172 * SGAI||+||4.679 * TATA||-||0.327 * LVGI|
|-||0.172 * 1.0079||+||4.679 * -0.0078||-||0.327 * 1.0068|
|This Year (Dec14) TTM:||Last Year (Dec13) TTM:|
|Accounts Receivable was $1,044 Mil.|
Revenue was 958 + 812 + 935 + 1097 = $3,802 Mil.
Gross Profit was 958 + 812 + 935 + 1097 = $3,802 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $10,853 Mil.
Total Assets was $15,435 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $483 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $146 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $2,314 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $10,232 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,142 Mil.
Net Income was 76 + -7 + 47 + 246 = $362 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 18 + -9 + -3 + 0 = $6 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 196 + 129 + 147 + 5 = $477 Mil.
|Accounts Receivable was $1,041 Mil.
Revenue was 919 + 795 + 890 + 1051 = $3,655 Mil.
Gross Profit was 919 + 795 + 890 + 1051 = $3,655 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $10,461 Mil.
Total Assets was $14,800 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $481 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $149 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $2,207 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $9,474 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,311 Mil.
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
|DSRI||=||(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)||/||(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)|
|=||(1044 / 3802)||/||(1041 / 3655)|
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
|=||(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)||/||(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)|
|=||(812 / 3655)||/||(958 / 3802)|
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
|AQI||=||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||(1 - (10853 + 483) / 15435)||/||(1 - (10461 + 481) / 14800)|
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
|DEPI||=||(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))||/||(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))|
|=||(149 / (149 + 481))||/||(146 / (146 + 483))|
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
|SGAI||=||(SGA_t / Sales_t)||/||(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)|
|=||(2314 / 3802)||/||(2207 / 3655)|
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage
|LVGI||=||((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||((2142 + 10232) / 15435)||/||((2311 + 9474) / 14800)|
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
|=||(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t||-||CashFlowsfromOperations_t)||/||TotalAssets_t|
|=||(362 - 6||-||477)||/||15435|
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Willis Group Holdings PLC has a M-score of -2.51 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.
Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations
Willis Group Holdings PLC Annual Data
Willis Group Holdings PLC Quarterly Data