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Watsco Inc (NYSE:WSO)
Beneish M-Score
-2.52 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Watsco Inc has a M-score of -2.52 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

WSO' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.97   Max: -1.01
Current: -2.52

-2.97
-1.01

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Watsco Inc was -1.01. The lowest was -2.97. And the median was -2.49.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Watsco Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9674+0.528 * 0.9872+0.404 * 0.9258+0.892 * 1.0491+0.115 * 1.2326
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9803+4.679 * -0.0168-0.327 * 0.9054
=-2.52

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Sep15) TTM:Last Year (Sep14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $510 Mil.
Revenue was 1177.012 + 1223.439 + 808.972 + 876.787 = $4,086 Mil.
Gross Profit was 285.846 + 295.245 + 204.225 + 214.295 = $1,000 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,314 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,929 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $63 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $19 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $665 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $331 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $305 Mil.
Net Income was 57.968 + 65.423 + 23.048 + 24.072 = $171 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 173.885 + -57.344 + -16.783 + 103.261 = $203 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $503 Mil.
Revenue was 1134.999 + 1170.186 + 762.568 + 827.352 = $3,895 Mil.
Gross Profit was 274.765 + 279.273 + 188.069 + 198.53 = $941 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,271 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,905 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $45 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $18 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $647 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $341 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $353 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(510.004 / 4086.21) / (502.522 / 3895.105)
=0.12481101 / 0.12901372
=0.9674

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(295.245 / 3895.105) / (285.846 / 4086.21)
=0.24149208 / 0.24463035
=0.9872

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1314.494 + 63.297) / 1929.459) / (1 - (1271.336 + 45.355) / 1904.988)
=0.28591849 / 0.30881927
=0.9258

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4086.21 / 3895.105
=1.0491

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(17.831 / (17.831 + 45.355)) / (18.795 / (18.795 + 63.297))
=0.28219859 / 0.22895045
=1.2326

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(665.088 / 4086.21) / (646.751 / 3895.105)
=0.16276403 / 0.16604199
=0.9803

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((304.941 + 331.037) / 1929.459) / ((352.732 + 340.751) / 1904.988)
=0.32961467 / 0.36403536
=0.9054

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(170.511 - 0 - 203.019) / 1929.459
=-0.0168

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Watsco Inc has a M-score of -2.52 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Watsco Inc Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 1.04710.86741.01190.87691.49470.80631.0261.00010.96991.0313
GMI 1.01530.97751.01540.97811.08231.01490.96771.03060.98790.9908
AQI 1.10790.95891.32191.04980.97650.92751.06181.17420.9740.897
SGI 1.2611.06810.99260.96711.17741.4211.04681.15241.09081.0538
DEPI 1.18911.21481.11250.85221.10340.79871.11960.8460.96551.1173
SGAI 0.93711.00051.05121.05720.98880.89370.99590.96650.97670.9832
LVGI 0.99690.80680.94010.73281.13551.09390.78842.02320.7981.1619
TATA 0.05540.0248-0.0525-0.0742-0.0387-0.05820.0299-0.0416-0.01350.0036
M-score -1.86-2.37-2.56-2.90-2.04-2.61-2.18-2.80-2.44-2.47

Watsco Inc Quarterly Data

Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15
DSRI 0.91310.92070.96990.960.98591.01851.03131.05031.03490.9674
GMI 1.00170.99680.98790.99380.99570.99380.99080.98670.98440.9872
AQI 0.98130.98230.9740.93470.94730.91840.8970.8920.90660.9258
SGI 1.12961.11161.09081.07991.06121.0581.05381.05241.05261.0491
DEPI 0.80530.88830.96550.98871.01751.00851.11731.13311.21731.2326
SGAI 0.97440.97980.97670.97510.9850.98760.98320.97960.97830.9803
LVGI 1.22031.11350.7980.89250.92851.10941.16191.13091.05630.9054
TATA -0.0169-0.0174-0.0115-0.0328-0.01310.0020.00360.02880.015-0.0168
M-score -2.62-2.59-2.43-2.59-2.50-2.47-2.47-2.33-2.37-2.52
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