American Electric Power Co (American Electric Power Co) Predictability Rank

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What is American Electric Power Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Electric Power Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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American Electric Power Co (American Electric Power Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » American Electric Power Co Inc (NAS:AEP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AEP:Germany AEP:Germany AEP:Germany AEPC:Austria

Address

1 Riverside Plaza, Columbus, OH, USA, 43215-2373

Website

https://www.aep.com

American Electric Power is one of the largest regulated utilities in the United States, providing electricity generation, transmission, and distribution to more than 5 million customers in 11 states. About 42% of AEP's of capacity is coal, with the remainder from a mix of natural gas (27%), renewable energy and hydro (21%), nuclear (8%), and demand response (2%). Vertically integrated utilities, transmission and distribution, and generation and marketing support earnings.

Executives

Daniel G. Stoddard	director	5000 DOMINION BOULEVARD, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Kate Sturgess	officer: Controller, CAO	2244 WALNUT GROVE AVENUE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Antonio P Smyth	officer: Executive Vice President	1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
David Matthew Feinberg	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O ALLEGHENY ENERGY, INC., 800 CABIN HILL DRIVE, GREENSBURG PA 15601
Christian T Beam	officer: Executive Vice President	1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Nicholas K Akins	officer: Executive Vice President	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC., 1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Ann P Kelly	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	460 NORTH GULPH ROAD, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Greg B Hall	officer: Executive Vice President	1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Peggy Simmons	officer: Executive Vice President	212 E 6TH ST, TULSA OK 74119
Raja Sundararajan	officer: Executive Vice President	1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Donna James	director	ONE MIRANOVA PLACE, SUITE 1040, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Therace Risch	officer: Senior Vice President	6501 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Charles E Zebula	officer: Executive Vice President	1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Lisa M Barton	officer: Executive Vice President	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC., 1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Paul Iii Chodak	officer: Executive Vice President	1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215