Allied Healthcare Products (Allied Healthcare Products) Predictability Rank

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What is Allied Healthcare Products Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Allied Healthcare Products Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Allied Healthcare Products (Allied Healthcare Products) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Allied Healthcare Products Inc (OTCPK:AHPIQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1720 Sublette Avenue, Saint Louis, MO, USA, 63110

Website

https://www.alliedhpi.com

Allied Healthcare Products Inc manufactures a variety of respiratory products used in the healthcare industry in a wide range of hospital and alternate site settings, including sub-acute care facilities, home health care, and emergency medical care. The product line of the company includes respiratory anesthesia products, home respiratory care products, medical gas system construction products, medical gas system regulation devices, disposable oxygen, and specialty gas cylinders, portable suction equipment, trauma, and patient handling products, respiratory products, and others. The company markets its products under various brand names Timeter, Carbolime, Litholyme, Schuco, Chemetron, Oxequip, Lif-O-Gen, Gomco, and others.

Executives

John D Weil	director, 10 percent owner	10 S. BROADWAY, SUITE 2000, ST LOUIS MO 63102
Susan M Deuser	director	1720 SUBLETTE AVENUE, ST. LOUIS MO 63110
Kevin D Kroupa	officer: Vice President of Operations	1720 SUBLETTE AVENUE, ST. LOUIS MO 63110
Earl R Refsland	director, officer: President and CEO	1720 SUBLETT AVENUE, ST. LOUIS MO 63110
Joseph F Ondrus	officer: Vice President of Operations	1720 SUBLETTE AVENUE, ST. LOUIS MO 63110
Andrew Riley	officer: VP of Operations	1720 SUBLETTE AVE., ST. LOUIS MO 63110
William A Peck	director	35 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Daniel C Dunn	officer: VP - Finance and CFO	1720 SUBLETTE AVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63110
Eldon P Rosentrater	officer: VP - Administration	1720 SUBLETTE AVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63110
Root Joseph Ernest Jr	director	HAYNES BEFFEL & WOLFELD LLP, 751 KELLY STREET, HALF MOON BAY CA 94019
Robert Bradley Harris	officer: Vice President of Operations	15 RIVER RIDGE TRAIL, ORMOND BEACH FL 32174
Judy T Graves	director	13317 WESTERMAN RD, ST LOUIS MO 63122
Hickey James B Jr	director	4608 EDINA BLVD, EDINA MN 55424
Richard A Setzer	officer: VICE PRESIDENT SALES & MKTG	1720 SUBLETTE AVENUE, ST. LOUIS MO 63110
Brent D Baird	director	1350 ONE M&T PLAZA, BUFFALO NY 14203-2396