1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Air T Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Air T (AIRT) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
11020 David Taylor Drive, Suite 305, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28262
Air T Inc together with its subsidiaries provides air freight service to the express delivery industry. The company's operating segments include Overnight air cargo, Ground equipment sales, and Ground support services, Commercial jet engines and parts, Corporate and Other. It generates maximum revenue from the Overnight air cargo segment.
Executives
| Raymond E Cabillot |
director, 10 percent owner |
3033 EXCELSIOR BLVD., STE 560, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416 |
| Peter B. Mcclung |
director |
14101 SOUTHERN ROAD, GRANDVIEW MO 64030 |
| Nicholas John Swenson |
10 percent owner |
5000 WEST 36TH STREET, SUITE 130, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416 |
| Gary S Kohler |
director |
5000 W 36TH STREET, SUITE 115, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416 |
| Seth G Barkett |
director |
495 WEST MT. GARFIELD ROAD, NORTON SHORES MI 49441 |
| Brett Reynolds |
officer: CFO |
5000 W 36TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416 |
| John A Reeves |
director |
570 BALLYMOTE COURT, MATTHEWS NC 28104 |
| Travis Jacob Swenson |
director |
6016 EDEN PRAIRIE ROAD, MINNETONKA MN 55345 |
| Air T Inc |
10 percent owner |
11020 DAVID TAYLOR DRIVE, SUITE 305, CHARLOTTE NC 28262 |
| Koutsouvas Constantine |
officer: General Counsel |
AIR T, INC., 5000 WEST 36TH, SUITE 130, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416 |
| William R Foudray |
director |
19192 POPLAR CIRCLE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347 |
| Biglari Capital Corp. |
10 percent owner |
19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259 |
| Sardar Biglari, |
10 percent owner |
C/O BIGLARI HOLDINGS INC., 19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259 |
| Lion Fund Ii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259 |
| Andrew Stumpf |
director |
5444 CREEKMONTE DR., OAKLAND TWP MI 48306 |
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