Alamo Group (Alamo Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1993. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alamo Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Alamo Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Alamo Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Alamo Group (Alamo Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » Alamo Group Inc (NYSE:ALG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AL3:Germany

Address

1627 East Walnut, Seguin, TX, USA, 78155

Website

https://www.alamo-group.com

Alamo Group Inc is engaged in the design and manufacturing of agricultural equipment and infrastructure maintenance equipment. Its products include tractor-mounted mowing and other vegetation maintenance equipment, street sweepers, excavators, vacuum trucks, snow removal equipment, leaf collection equipment, pothole patchers, zero-turn radius mowers, agricultural implements, and related aftermarket parts. The company's reportable segments are Vegetation Management and Industrial Equipment. It generates a majority of its revenue from Vegetation Management. Geographically, the company generates majority of the revenue from the United States.

Executives

Richard Hodges Raborn	officer: VP & Gen Mgr Agricultural Div	1627 E. WALNUT ST., SEGUIN TX 78155
Richard J Wehrle	officer: VP and Controller	1502 EAST WALNUT, SEGIN TX 78155
Dan Edward Malone	officer: EVP & CFO	1502 E WALNUT ST, SEGUIN TX 78155
Edward Rizzuti	officer: VP & General Counsel	5550 SW MACADAM AVENUE, SUITE 200, PORTLAND OR 97239
Eric Etchart	director	ROOM F, 22F CROSS REGION PLAZA, 899 LINGLING ROAD, SHANGHAI F4 200030
Jeffery Allen Leonard	other: EVP NA Industrial Div (USA)	1627 E WALNUT ST, SEGUIN TX 78155
Robert P Bauer	director	415 HOLIDAY DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15220
Nina C Grooms	director	1627 E WALNUT ST, SEGUIN TX 78155
Ronald A Robinson	director, officer: President & CEO	1627 EAST WALNUT, SEGUIN TX 78155
Janet S Pollock	officer: VP, Human Resources	1627 E WALNUT ST., SEGUIN TX 78155
Michael A Haberman	officer: EVP	1627 E WALNUT ST, SEGUIN TX 78155
Lorie Tekorius	director	ONE CENTERPOINTE DRIVE, SUITE 200, LAKE OSWEGO OR 97035
Lori L Sullivan	officer: VP, Internal Audit	1627 E WALNUT ST, SEGUIN TX 78155-5259
David W Grzelak	director	1502 E WALNUT ST, SEGUIN TX 78155
Rick Parod	director	2707 N 108TH STREET STE102, OMAHA NE 68164