Autoliv (Autoliv) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Autoliv Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Autoliv Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Autoliv (Autoliv) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Autoliv Inc (NYSE:ALV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ALIV SDB:Sweden ALIVs:UK 0MI0:UK LIVS:Germany

Address

Klarabergsviadukten 70, P.O. Box 70381, Section B7, Stockholm, SWE, SE-107 24

Website

https://www.autoliv.com

Autoliv is the global leader in passive safety components and systems for the auto industry. Products include seat belts, frontal air bags, side-impact air bags, air bag inflators, and steering wheels. The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance is the company's largest customer at 11% of 2022 revenue, with Stellantis accounting for 11% and Volkswagen 10%. At 34% of 2022 revenue, the Americas was Autoliv's largest geographic region, followed by Europe at 27%, China at 21%, and Japan at 8%.

Executives

Leif Johansson	director	C/O AB VOLVO, SE 4050B, GOTEBORG, SWEDEN V7 4050B
Jan Carlson	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O AUTOLIV, INC., KLARABERGSVIADUKTEN 70, SECTION B7, STOCKHOLM V7 SE-111 64
Fredrik Westin	officer: See Remarks	C/O AUTOLIV, INC. KLABERGSVIADUKTEN 70, SECTION B7, STOCKHOLM V7 11 64
Frithjof Oldorff	officer: President, Autoliv Europe	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, SUITE 101, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Christian Swahn	officer: EVP, Supply Chain Management	C/O AUTOLIV, INC. KLARABERGSVIADUKTEN 70, SECTION B7, STOCKHOLM V7 111 64
Mikael Bratt	officer: President, Passive Safety	C/O AUTOLIV, INC., KLARABERGSVIADUKTEN 70, SECTION B7, STOCKHOLM V7 SE-111 64
Magnus Jarlegren	officer: EVP, Operations	C/O AUTOLIV, INC.,KLARABERGSVIADUKTEN 70, SECTION B7, STOCKHOLM V7 111 64
Jordi Lombarte	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O AUTOLIV, INC., BOX 70381, STOCKHOLM V7 SE 107 24
Naughton Colin	officer: President, Asia	C/O AUTOLIV, INC. KLARABERGSVIADUKTEN 70, STOCKHOLM V7 11164
Per Jonas Jademyr	officer: See Remarks	C/O AUTOLIV, INC. KLARABERGSVIADUKTEN 70, STOCKHOLM V7 11164
Svante Mogefors	officer: Group VP, Quality	C/O AUTOLIV, INC., KLARABERGSVIADUKTEN 70, SECTION B7, STOCKHOLM V7 SE-111 64
Cevian Capital Ii Gp Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O HIGHVERN FUND ADMINISTRATORS LIMITED, WHITELEY CHAMBERS, DON STREET, St. Helier Y9 JE2 4TR
Gustav Lundgren	director	RINGVAGEN 32, LIDINGO V7 181 51
Sng Yih	officer: President, Autoliv China	C/O AUTOLIV, INC. KLARABERGSVIADUKTEN 70, STOCKHOLM V7 11164
Martin Lundstedt	director	NORRSKOGSGATAN 14, STOCKHOLM V7 11264