Applied Materials (Applied Materials) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1972. Start your Free Trial

What is Applied Materials Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Applied Materials Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Applied Materials Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Applied Materials's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Applied Materials (Applied Materials) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Applied Materials Inc (NAS:AMAT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AMAT:Mexico 1AMAT:Italy AP2d:UK 0R1A:UK AP2:Germany AP2:Germany AP2:Germany AP2:Germany A1MT34:Brazil AMAT:Austria AMAT:Argentina

Address

3050 Bowers Avenue, P.O. Box 58039, Santa Clara, CA, USA, 95052-8039

Website

https://www.appliedmaterials.com

Applied Materials is the largest semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment, or WFE, manufacturer in the world. Applied Materials has a broad portfolio spanning nearly every corner of the WFE ecosystem. Specifically, Applied Materials holds a market share leadership position in deposition, which entails the layering of new materials on semiconductor wafers. It is more exposed to general-purpose logic chips made at integrated device manufacturers and foundries. It counts the largest chipmakers in the world as customers, including TSMC, Intel, and Samsung.

Executives

Omkaram Nalamasu	officer: Senior VP, CTO	C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Brice Hill	officer: SVP, CFO	2100 LOGIC DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95124
Teri A. Little	officer: SVP, CLO	ONE TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, MILPITAS CA 95035
Timothy M Deane	officer: GVP, Applied Global Services	C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVE, PO BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052
Xun Chen	director	35 DORY RD., GLOUCESTER MA 01930
Kevin P March	director	12500 TI BLVD, DALLAS TX 75243
Jeff Bodner	officer: CVP, Corp. Controller & CAO	C/O ESS TECH INC, 26440 SW PARKWAY AVE BLDG. 83, WILSONVILLE CA 97070
Gary E Dickerson	director, officer: President and CEO
Ginetto Addiego	officer: SVP, Engineering	4000 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Daniel Durn	officer: Senior VP	C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Prabu G. Raja	officer: SVP, Semi. Products Group	C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052
Thomas J Iannotti	director	C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Rani Borkar	director	C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVE, PO BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052
Alexander Karsner	director	C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Stephen R Forrest	director	C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039