Amyris (Amyris) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amyris Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Amyris (Amyris) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Amyris Inc (OTCPK:AMRSQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5885 Hollis Street, Suite 100, Emeryville, CA, USA, 94608

Website

https://www.amyris.com

Amyris Inc is an industrial biotechnology company. It is engaged in the engineering, manufacturing, and sales of products in a variety of consumer and industrial markets, including cosmetics, flavors and fragrances, solvents and cleaners, polymers, lubricants, healthcare products, and fuels. The business operations are spread across the world with the majority of the revenues generated in the United States. The company generates revenue from the sale of renewable products, licenses of and royalties from intellectual property, and grants, and collaborative research and development services.

Executives

J. Scott White	director	100 ABBOTT PARK ROAD, ABBOTT PARK IL 60064
Philip J. Gund	officer: Chief Restructuring Officer	C/O SUNEDISON, INC., 13736 RIVERPORT DR., MARYLAND HEIGHTS MO 63043
M. Freddie Reiss	director	2951 28TH STREET, SUITE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Hermanus Kieftenbeld	officer: Chief Financial Officer	259 PROSPECT PLAINS RD., BLDG A, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Eduardo Alvarez	officer: Chief Operating Officer	AMYRIS, INC., 5885 HOLLIS STREET, SUITE 100, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Elizabeth E. Dreyer	officer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE, 1350 TIMBERLAKE MANOR PARKWAY, CHESTERFIELD MO 63017
Frank Kung	director	C/O VIVO CAPITAL, 505, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Nicole Kelsey	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	AMYRIS, INC., 5885 HOLLIS STREET, SUITE 100, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
John Melo	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O AMYRIS, INC., 5885 HOLLIS ST., SUITE 100, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Anthony Hughes	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	5885 HOLLIS STREET, SUITE 100, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Ana Dutra	director	C/O KORN/FERRY INTERNATIONAL, 1900 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 2600, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
James F Mccann	director	ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 500, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Ryan Panchadsaram	director	5885 HOLLIS ST., SUITE 100, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
L John Doerr	director, 10 percent owner	C/O KLEINER PERKINS CAUFIELD & BYERS, 2750 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Julie Washington	director	C/O JAMBA, INC., 6475 CHRISTIE AVENUE, NO. 150, EMERYVILLE CA 94608