Ark Restaurants (Ark Restaurants) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ark Restaurants Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ark Restaurants (Ark Restaurants) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Ark Restaurants Corp (NAS:ARKR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

85 5th Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10003

Website

https://www.arkrestaurants.com

Ark Restaurants Corp owns and operates around 17 restaurants and bars, 16 fast food concepts, and catering operations in the USA. The Las Vegas operations include New York Hotel & Casino Resort, hotel room service operations, banquet facilities, employee dining room, food court concepts, and a restaurant within the Planet Hollywood Resort and Casino. It operates a restaurant and a bar in the Resorts Atlantic City Hotel and Casino and a restaurant in the Tropicana Hotel and Casino. The Florida operations include The Rustic Inn in Dania Beach, Shuckers in Jensen Beach, JB's on the Beach in Deerfield Beach, The Blue Moon Fish Company in Fort Lauderdale, and fast food facilities in Tampa and Hollywood. In Alabama, it operates Original Oyster Houses in Gulf Shores and Spanish Fort.

Executives

Satterfield Thomas A Jr	10 percent owner	2609 CALDWELL MILL LN, BIRMINGHAM AL 35243
Michael S Weinstein	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO	C/O ARK RESTAURANTS CORP, 85 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10003
Anthony Sirica	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	85 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10003
Paul Gordon	director, officer: Senior Vice President	C/O ARK LAS VEGAS RESTAURANTS CORP, 3790 LAS VEGAS BLVD S SUITE 11, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Vincent Pascal	director, officer: Senior Vice President	C/O ARK RESTAURANTS CORP, 85 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10003
Steven Shulman	director	C/O PARAGON TECHNOLOGIES INC, 600 KUEBLER ROAD, EASTON PA 18040
Robert J Stewart	director, officer: President and CFO	C/O ARK RESTAURANTS CORP, 85 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10003
Arthur Stainman	director	320 EAST 72ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021
Bruce R Lewin	director	G&G RETAIL INC, 520 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Robert Towers	director, officer: Executive Vice President	C/O ARK RESTAURANTS CORP, 85 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10003
Marcia Allen	director	P.O. BOX 399, 2600 W. HOMESTEAD CIRCLE, WILSON WY 83014
Prides Capital Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	200 HIGH STREET, SUITE 700, BOSTON MA 02110
Robert Thomas Zankel	director	808 BROADWAY, PHB, NEW YORK NY 10003
Stephen A Novick	director	ANDREA & CHARLES BRONFMAN PHILANTROPIES, 110 EAST 59TH STREET, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Charles E Mccarthy	10 percent owner	200 HIGH STREET, SUITE 700, BOSTON MA 02110