Ashland (Ashland) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ashland Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ashland (Ashland) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Ashland Inc (NYSE:ASH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AHT:Germany

Address

8145 Blazer Drive, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19808

Website

http://www.ashland.com

Ashland Inc is a world-wide specialty materials company that serves a wide range of industrial markets. The company has a business-centric operating model and is organized into four distinct segments: life sciences, personal care, specialty additives, and intermediates. Key customers for the firm include pharmaceutical companies and manufacturers of personal care products, food and beverages, and nutraceuticals and supplements. The life sciences segment derives maximum revenue. Ashland includes only U.S. and Canada in its North America designation and includes Europe, the Middle East and Africa in its Europe designation.

Executives

Eric N Boni	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	8145 BLAZER DRIVE, WILMINGTON DE 19808
J Kevin Willis	officer: Chief Financial Officer	50 E RIVERCENTER BLVD, COVINGTON KY 41011
James P. Minicucci	officer: SVP Strategy, M&A & Portfolio	5474 RINGS ROAD, NORTH TOWER, 5TH FLOOR, DUBLIN OH 43017
Karl R. Bostaph	officer: SVP Operations	5474 RINGS ROAD, NORTH TOWER, 5TH FLOOR, DUBLIN OH 43017
Robin E. Lampkin	officer: SVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	5475 RINGS ROAD, NORTH TOWER, 5TH FLOOR, DUBLIN OH 43017
Sergio Pedreiro	director	2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Eileen Drury	officer: SVP and Chief Human Resources	8145 BLAZER DRIVE, WILMINGTON DE 19808
Ricky C Sandler	director, other: See Remarks	65 EAST 55TH STREET, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steven D Bishop	director	ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Suzan F. Harrison	director	77 WEST WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Guillermo Novo	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS, INC., 7201 HAMILTON BOULEVARD, ALLENTOWN PA 18195
Winkler Von Mohrenfels Petra Yvonne	officer: Sr. VP, GC and Secretary	8145 BLAZER DRIVE, WILMINGTON DE 19808
Min Chong	officer: Sr VP & Gen Mgr, Spc Additives	8145 BLAZER DRIVE, WILMINGTON DE 19808
Osama M Musa	officer: Sr. Vice President	ASHLAND GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC, 1005 ROUTE 202/206, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Swaminathan Ashok Kalyana	officer: Sr VP & Gen Mgr, Life Sciences	8145 BLAZER DRIVE, WILMINGTON DE 19808