Alphatec Holdings (Alphatec Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alphatec Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alphatec Holdings (Alphatec Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Alphatec Holdings Inc (NAS:ATEC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

L1Z1:Germany

Address

1950 Camino Vida Roble, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92008

Website

https://www.atecspine.com

Alphatec Holdings Inc is a medical technology company focused on the design, development, and advancement of products for the surgical treatment of spinal disorders associated with disease and degeneration, congenital deformities, and trauma. The company's spine approach technologies include Posterior Cervical Fusion, Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion, Lateral Interbody Fusion, and Posterior Lumbar Interbody Fusion among others.

Executives

David Sponsel	officer: EVP, Sales	C/O ALPHATEC SPINE, INC., 5818 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92008
David M Demski	director	C/O GLOBUS MEDICAL, INC., 2560 GENERAL ARMISTEAD AVENUE, AUDUBON PA 19403
Patrick Miles	director, officer: Executive Chairman	7475 LUSK BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Tullis James L L	director, 10 percent owner	100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06907
David H Mowry	director	9775 TOLEDO, IRVINE CA 92618
Evan Bakst	director	225 CENTRAL PARK WEST, APT. 1605, NEW YORK NY 10024
Jennifer N. Pritzker	10 percent owner	C/O SQUADRON CAPITAL LLC, 104 S. MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60603
Tyson Eliot Marshall	officer: GENERAL COUNSEL & CORP. SEC.	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 500, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Craig E Hunsaker	officer: See Remarks	C/O ALPHATEC HOLDINGS, INC., 5818 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Elizabeth Ann Altman	director	10070 BARNES CANYON ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Paul Segal	10 percent owner	1700 BROADWAY, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
L-5 Healthcare Partners, Llc	10 percent owner, other: Director by deputization	1700 BROADWAY, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
John Todd Koning	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MASIMO CORPORATION, 52 DISCOVERY, IRVINE CA 92618
David R Pelizzon	director, 10 percent owner	2850 FRONTIER DR, WARSAW IN 46582
Scott Lish	officer: SVP, Development	C/O ALPHATEC SPINE, INC., 5818 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92008