AptarGroup (AptarGroup) Predictability Rank

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What is AptarGroup Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AptarGroup Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AptarGroup (AptarGroup) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » AptarGroup Inc (NYSE:ATR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AGT:Germany AGT:Germany

Address

265 Exchange Drive, Suite 301, Crystal Lake, IL, USA, 60014

Website

https://www.aptar.com

Headquartered in Crystal Lake, Illinois, AptarGroup is a leading global supplier of dispensing systems such as aerosol valves, pumps, and closures to the consumer goods and pharmaceutical markets. With the bulk of its annual net sales coming from Europe (50% of sales) and the United States (33%), Aptar aims to increase its presence in Asia (10%) and Latin America (7%). Aptar's pharmaceutical division generates roughly one third of group sales but over two thirds of group profits.

Executives

Marc Prieur	officer: Segment President	265 EXCHANGE DRIVE, SUITE 100, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Monnas Giovanna Kampouri	director	C/O APTARGROUP, INC., 265 EXCHANGE DRIVE, SUITE 100, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Sarah Js Glickman	director	60 BINNEY STREET, C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
George L Fotiades	director	281 SUMMIT AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Hedi Tlili	officer: Segment President	265 EXCHANGE DRIVE, SUITE 100, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Kimberly Chainey	officer: EVP and General Counsel	265 EXCHANGE DRIVE, SUITE 100, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Xiangwei Gong	officer: President, Asia	265 EXCHANGE DRIVE, SUITE 100, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60010
Shiela Vinczeller	officer: Chief Human Resource Officer	265 EXCHANGE DRIVE, SUITE 100, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Julie Xing	director	265 EXCHANGE DRIVE, SUITE 301, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Maritza Gomez Montiel	director	C/O APTARGROUP, INC., 265 EXCHANGE DRIVE, SUITE 100, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Robert Kuhn	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O APTARGROUP 475 W. TERRA COTTA AVENUE, SUITE E, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Matthew L. Trerotola	director	2711 CENTERVILLE ROAD, SUITE 400, WILMINGTON DE 19808
Gael Touya	officer: Segment President	475 W. TERRA COTTA AVE., SUITE E, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Candace S. Matthews	director	C/O APTARGROUP, INC., 265 EXCHANGE DRIVE, SUITE 100, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014
Isabel Marey-semper	director	C/O APTARGROUP, INC., 265 EXCHANGE DRIVE, SUITE 100, CRYSTAL LAKE IL 60014