Atrion (Atrion) Predictability Rank

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What is Atrion Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Atrion Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Atrion (Atrion) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Atrion Corp (NAS:ATRI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Allentown Parkway, Allen, TX, USA, 75002-4211

Website

https://www.atrioncorp.com

Atrion Corp develops and manufactures products for medical applications. Its fluid-delivery products contribute the largest proportion of revenue and include valves that can hold and release controlled amounts of fluids or gases and are often used in anesthesia and oncology applications. Atrion's cardiovascular products include the MPS2 Myocardial Protection System, which delivers fluids and medications, mixes drugs, and controls temperature and pressure during open-heart surgery. The cardiovascular business also sells cardiac-surgery vacuum relief valves, inflation devices, and other products used in heart surgery. The firm's ophthalmic products include medical devices that disinfect contact lenses. Atrion generates the majority of revenue in the United States.

Executives

Preston G Athey	director	ONE ALLENTOWN PKWY, ALLEN TX 75002
David A Battat	officer: President & CEO	2700 HALKEY-ROBERTS PLACE NORTH, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33716-4103
Jeannette Bankes	director	ONE ALLENTOWN PARKWAY, ONE ALLENTOWN PARKWAY, ALLEN TX 75002
Morgan Hugh J Jr	director
Ronald Nicholas Spaulding	director	ONE ALLENTOWN PARKWAY, ALLEN TX 75002
Cindy Ferguson	officer: Officer/ CFO	ONE ALLENTOWN PARKWAY, ALLEN TX 75002
Jeffery Strickland	officer: Vice President & CFO
Emile A Battat	director, officer: Chairman	ONE ALLENTOWN PARKWAY, ALLEN TX 75002
Maria Sainz	director	C/O ORTHOFIX INTERNATIONAL N. V., 3451 PLANO PARKWAY, LEWISVILLE TX 75056
Stupp John P Jr	director	STUPP JOHN P JR, #18 ST. ANDREWS DR., ST LOUIS MO 63124
Roger F Stebbing	director
Ronald N Spaulding	director	C/O GUIDANT CORP, 111 MONUMENT CIRCLE #2900, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204-5129
Richard O Jacobson	director	ONE ALLENTOWN PARKWAY, C/O ATRION, ALLEN TX 75002
Maley John H P	director	6 ROCK CREST LANE, SIGNAL MOUNTAIN TN 37377
Margaret Maxwell Zagel	director	C/O TELLABS OPERATIONS INC, 4951 INDIANA AVE, LISLE IL 60532