Broadcom (Broadcom) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Broadcom Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Broadcom (Broadcom) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Broadcom Inc (NAS:AVGO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AVGON:Mexico 1AVGO:Italy 1YDd:UK 1YD0:Germany 1YD:Germany 1YD:Germany 1YD:Germany 1YD:Germany AVGO:Canada AVGO34:Brazil

Address

3421 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 94304

Website

https://www.broadcom.com

Broadcom is the sixth-largest semiconductor company globally and has expanded into various software businesses, with over $30 billion in annual revenue. It sells 17 core semiconductor product lines across wireless, networking, broadband, storage, and industrial markets. It is primarily a fabless designer but holds some manufacturing in-house, like for its best-of-breed FBAR filters that sell into the Apple iPhone. In software, it sells virtualization, infrastructure, and security software to large enterprises, financial institutions, and governments.Broadcom is the product of consolidation. Its businesses are an amalgamation of former companies like legacy Broadcom and Avago Technologies in chips, as well as Brocade, CA Technologies, and Symantec in software.

Executives

Kirsten M. Spears	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	1320 RIDDER PARK, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Hock E Tan	director, officer: President and CEO	BROADCOM INC., 1320 RIDDER PARK DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Eddy W Hartenstein	director
Mark David Brazeal	officer: Chief Legal Officer	1320 RIDDER PARK DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Charlie B Kawwas	officer: SVP & Chief Sales Officer	C/O AVAGO TECHNOLOGIES U.S. INC., 350 WEST TRIMBLE ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Justine Lien	director	1320 RIDDER PARK DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Harry L. You	director	EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Check Kian Low	director	1320 RIDDER PARK DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Raul J Fernandez	director	11600 SUNRISE VALLEY DR, RESTON VA 20191
Gayla J Delly	director	3000 TECHNOLOGY DR, ANGLETON TX 77515
Diane M Bryant	director	2200 MISSION COLLEGE BLVD, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Thomas H. Krause	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1320 RIDDER PARK, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Henry Samueli	director, officer: Chief Technical Officer	5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617-3038
Bryan Ingram	officer: SVP & GM, Wireless Semicon Div	C/O AVAGO TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED, 350 WEST TRIMBLE ROAD, BLDG. 90, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Donald Macleod	director