Avery Dennison (Avery Dennison) Predictability Rank

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What is Avery Dennison Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Avery Dennison Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Avery Dennison (Avery Dennison) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Avery Dennison Corp (NYSE:AVY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AV3:Germany AVY:Argentina

Address

8080 Norton Parkway, Mentor, OH, USA, 44060

Website

https://www.averydennison.com

Avery Dennison manufactures pressure-sensitive materials, merchandise tags, and labels. The company also runs a specialty converting business that produces radio-frequency identification, or RFID, inlays and labels. Avery Dennison draws a significant amount of revenue from outside the United States, with international operations accounting for the majority of total sales.

Executives

Ignacio J Walker	officer: VP and Chief Legal Officer	207 GOODE AVE, GLENDALE CA 91203
Divina Fe Santiago	officer: VP Controller	8080 NORTON PARKWAY, MENTOR OH 44060
Julia A Stewart	director	4551 WEST 107TH STREET STE 100, C/O APPLEBEES INTERNATIONAL INC, OVERLAND PARK KS 66207
Francisco Melo	officer: President, Solutions Group	8080 NORTON PARKWAY, MENTOR OH 44060
Hassan Rmaile	officer: President, Materials Group	1200 WILLOW LAKE BLVD, P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55110
Andres Alberto Lopez	director	ONE MICHAEL OWENS WAY, PERRYSBURG OH 43551
Francesca Reverberi	director	C/O TRINSEO S.A., 1000 CHESTERBROOK BLVD., SUITE 300, BERWYN PA 19312
Anthony Anderson	director	1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Martha N. Sullivan	director	529 PLEASANT STREET, MS B-7, ATTLEBORO MA 02703
William Raymond Wagner	director	C/O VOCUS, INC., 4296 FORBES BOULEVARD, LANHAM MD 20706
Bradley A Alford	director	150 N ORANGE GROVE BLVD, PASADENA CA 91103
Deena Baker-nel	officer: VP & Chief HR Officer	207 GOODE AVE, GLENDALE CA 91203
Gregory Lovins	officer: V.P. and Interim CFO	207 GOODE AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91203
Ken C Hicks	director	150 N. ORANGE GROVE BLVD, PASADENA CA 91103
Nicholas Colisto	officer: VP & Chief Information Officer	C/O AVERY DENNISON CORPORATION, 207 GOODE AVE, GLENDALE CA 91203