Beacon Roofing Supply (Beacon Roofing Supply) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Beacon Roofing Supply Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Beacon Roofing Supply (Beacon Roofing Supply) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » Beacon Roofing Supply Inc (NAS:BECN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OWY:Germany

Address

505 Huntmar Park Drive, Suite 300, Herndon, VA, USA, 20170

Website

https://www.becn.com

Beacon Roofing Supply Inc manufactures and sells roofing and building materials throughout the United States and Canada. Beacon's key customers consist of contractors, home builders, lumberyards, retailers, wholesale distributors, and building materials suppliers. The company's product portfolio includes both residential and non-residential roofing materials, siding, windows, and waterproofing systems. The majority of revenue is generated from residential and non-residential roofing products. The vast majority of Beacon's revenue comes from the United States.

Executives

Jason L Taylor	officer: President, West Division	505 HUNTMAR PARK DR, SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20170
James J Gosa	officer: President, North/Canada Div.	505 HUNTMAR PARK DR, SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20170
Cd&r Investment Associates Ix, Ltd.	10 percent owner	MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY101194
Best Clement Munroe Iii	officer: President, South Division	505 HUNTMAR PARK DR, SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20170
Julian Francis	director, officer: President & CEO	ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Christopher Carl Nelson	officer: EVP, CIO	505 HUNTMAR PARK DR, SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20170
Robert M Mclaughlin	director	C/O AIRGAS, INC., 259 NORTH RADNOR-CHESTER RD, RADNOR PA 19087
Martin S. Harrell	officer: President, Waterproofing	3401 PHILIPS HWY, JACKSONVILLE FL 32207
Christine Stroh Reddy	officer: EVP, General Counsel	505 HUNTMAR PARK DRIVE, SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20170
Stuart A Randle	director	585 WEST 500 SOUTH, BOUNTIFUL UT 84010
Racquel Harris Mason	director	C/O ELANCO ANIMAL HEALTH INCORPORATED, 2500 INNOVATION WAY, GREENFIELD IN 46140
Hart Melanie Housey	director	POOL CORPORATION, 109 NORTHPARK BLVD, COVINGTON LA 70433
Frank A Lonegro	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	500 WATER STREET, JACKSONVILLE FL 32202
Jonathan Stuart Bennett	officer: EVP & CCO	505 HUNTMAR PARK DR, SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20170
Sean M. Mcdevitt	officer: EVP & CHRO	505 HUNTMAR PARK DR, SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20170