BGC Group (BGC Group) Predictability Rank

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What is BGC Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BGC Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BGC Group (BGC Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » BGC Group Inc (NAS:BGC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ESD:Germany

Address

499 Park Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.bgcg.com

BGC Group Inc is a brokerage and financial technology company that serves the global financial markets. Its service and product offerings include brokerage for a wide range of financial products including fixed income, equities, commodities, derivatives, and real estate, software solutions for trading platforms, clearing, trade execution, and other back-office services. Its clients mostly include banks, brokerage houses, hedge funds, and investment banks. BGC operates in one reportable segment, which is providing brokerage services to the financial markets. The company earns the majority of its revenue in the United Kingdom followed by the United States.

Executives

William Dean Addas	director	C/O DEUTSCHE BANK, 300 S. GRAND AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90071-3109
Jason W. Hauf	officer: Chief Financial Officer	BGC PARTNERS, 499 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Arthur U Mbanefo	director	280 PARK AVENUE 40 WEST, CO ORIX, NEW YORK NY 10017
Sean A Windeatt	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O BGC PARTNERS, INC., 499 PARK AVENNUE NY 10022
Stephen M Merkel	officer: EVP and General Counsel	C/O BGC PARTNERS, INC., 499 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Linda A Bell	director	C/O BGC PARTNERS, INC., 499 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
David Richards	director	C/O BGC PARTNERS, INC., 499 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Martin Laguerre	director	C/O BGC PARTNERS, INC., 499 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steven Bisgay	officer: Chief Financial Officer	545 WASHINGTON BLVD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Cf Group Management Inc	director, 10 percent owner	135 EAST 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10022
Cantor Fitzgerald, L. P.	director, 10 percent owner	110 EAST 59TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Sean Galvin	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
William J Moran	director	135 EAST 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10022
Howard W Lutnick	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Steven R Mcmurray	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BGC PARTNERS, INC., 499 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022