Bio-Rad Laboratories (Bio-Rad Laboratories) Predictability Rank

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What is Bio-Rad Laboratories Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bio-Rad Laboratories Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bio-Rad Laboratories (Bio-Rad Laboratories) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc (NYSE:BIO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BIO.B:USA BUW:Germany BUWA:Germany

Address

1000 Alfred Nobel Drive, Hercules, CA, USA, 94547

Website

https://www.bio-rad.com

Bio-Rad Laboratories, headquartered in Hercules, California, develops, manufactures, and markets products and solutions for the clinical diagnostics and life sciences markets. In diagnostics (53% of sales), Bio-Rad manufactures, sells, and supports test systems and specialized quality controls for clinical laboratories. In life sciences (47% of sales), the firm develops and manufactures a range of instruments and reagents used in research, biopharmaceutical production, and food testing. The company is geographically diverse, with major markets in the Americas, Europe and Africa , and Asia-Pacific. Bio-Rad owns 37% of Sartorius AG, a laboratory and biopharmaceutical supplier.

Executives

Tania Devilliers	officer: INT PRIN ACCTG OFC	C/O BIO-RAD LABORATORIES, INC., 1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Sedat Evran	officer: EVP, Global Supply Chain	C/O BIO-RAD LABORATORIES, INC., 1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Corey Colleen	officer: EVP, Global Human Resources	1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Diane Dahowski	officer: EVP, Global Supply Chain	C/O BIO-RAD LABORATORIES, INC., 1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Schwartz Allison	director	C/O BIO-RAD LABORATORIES, INC., 1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Simon May	officer: EVP, President, LSG	C/O BIO-RAD LABORATORIES, INC., 1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Andrew J. Last	officer: EVP, Chief Operating Officer	3420 CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Ajit Ramalingam	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BIO-RAD LABORATORIES, INC., 1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Ilan Daskal	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Timothy S Ernst	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec	1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Dara Wright	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O BIO-RAD LABORATORIES, INC., 1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Michael Crowley	officer: EVP, GBL Commercial Operations	1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Steven D Schwartz	10 percent owner	1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547
Alice N Schwartz	director, 10 percent owner
Norman D Schwartz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President, and CEO	1000 ALFRED NOBEL DRIVE, HERCULES CA 94547