Buckle (Buckle) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Buckle Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Buckle (Buckle) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Buckle Inc (NYSE:BKE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BK2:Germany BK2:Germany

Address

2407 West 24th Street, Kearney, NE, USA, 68845-4915

Website

https://www.buckle.com

Buckle Inc is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories. The company retails medium to better-priced casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for fashion-conscious young men and women. It retails under the brand names 'Buckle' and 'The Buckle'. Buckle markets a wide selection of mostly brand-name casual apparel including denim, other casual bottoms, tops, sportswear, outerwear, accessories, and footwear.

Executives

Kelli D Molczyk	officer: SVP Women's Merchandising	2407 W 24TH STREET, KEARNEY NE 68845
Brett P Milkie	officer: SVP Leasing
Dennis H Nelson	director, officer: President & CEO
Thomas B Heacock	director, officer: SVP Finance, Treasurer, & CFO	2407 W 24TH STREET, KEARNEY NE 68845
Bill L Fairfield	director	111 SOUTH CALVERT STREET, SUITE 1900, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Michelle Hoffman	officer: VP SALES	2407 W 24TH STREET, KEARNEY NE 68845
Kari G Smith	officer: VP of Sales
Shruti S Joshi	director	2407 W 24TH STREET, KEARNEY NE 68845
Diane L Applegate	officer: VP SUPPLY CHAIN & MERCH OP	2407 W 24TH STREET, KEARNEY NE 68845
John P Peetz	director	2407 W 24TH STREET, KEARNEY NE 68845
Robert M Carlberg	officer: VP MEN'S MERCHANDISING	2407 W 24TH STREET, KEARNEY NE 68845
Karen B Rhoads	director, officer: VP of Finance, Treasurer & CFO
James E Shada	director, officer: Executive VP Sales
Bruce Hoberman	director
Angie J Klein	director	2407 W 24TH STREET, KEARNEY NE 68845