Black Hills (Black Hills) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Black Hills Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Black Hills (Black Hills) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Black Hills Corp (NYSE:BKH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BHI:Germany BHI:Germany

Address

7001 Mount Rushmore Road, Rapid City, SD, USA, 57702

Website

https://www.blackhillscorp.com

Black Hills Corp is a U.S.-based energy company that operates through its regulated Electric Utilities, regulated Gas Utilities, Power Generation and Mining segments. These segments operate in states in the Midwest and mountain regions in the U.S. The company's customers include residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal consumers. These customers are residential. Black Hills derives the majority of its revenue from its utility business group, specifically from electric utilities.

Executives

Richard Kinzley	officer: Sr VP & CFO	PO BOX 1400, RAPID CITY SD 57709
Rebecca B Roberts	director	1000 LOUISIANA, SUITE 5800, HOUSTON TX 77002
Stuart A Wevik	officer: Sr VP - Utility Operations	PO BOX 1400, RAPID CITY SD 57709
Kathleen S Mcallister	director	DEEPWATER HOUSE, KINGSWELLS CAUSEWAY, PRIME FOUR BUSINESS PARK, ABERDEEN, SCOTLAND X0 AB15 8PU
Barry M Granger	director	PO BOX 1400, RAPID CITY SD 57709
Robert P Otto	director	PO BOX 1400, RAPID CITY SD 57709
Mark A Schober	director
Tony A Jensen	director	620 E HEARTSTRONG STREET, SUPERIOR CO 80027
Scott M Prochazka	director	1111 LOUISIANA, HOUSTON TX 77002
Teresa Taylor	director	FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM, INC, PO BOX 30918, BILLINGS MT 59116-0918
Michael Madison	director	PO BOX 5000, PINEVILLE LA 71361-5000
John B Vering	director	PO BOX 1400, RAPID CITY SD 57709
Steven Richard Mills	director	C/O ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND CO, 4666 FARIES PARKWAY, DECATUR IL 62526
Linden R Evans	officer: President and CEO	PO BOX 1400, RAPID CITY SD 57709
David R Emery	director, officer: Executive Chairman	P O BOX 1400, RAPID CITY SD 57709-1400