Brixmor Property Group (Brixmor Property Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Brixmor Property Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Brixmor Property Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Brixmor Property Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Brixmor Property Group (Brixmor Property Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Brixmor Property Group Inc (NYSE:BRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BXR:Germany

Address

450 Lexington Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://www.brixmor.com

Brixmor Property Group Inc is a real estate investment trust based in the United States. The company owns and operates a portfolio of grocery-anchored community and neighborhood shopping centers across the United States. It leases its rentable areas to retailers, restaurants, theatres, entertainment venues, and fitness centers, with the company's tenants consisting of large department stores, discount retailers, and grocery stores. The company is an internally managed REIT.

Executives

Brian T Finnegan	officer: See Remarks	C/O BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC., 420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10170
Angela M Aman	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	RETAIL PROPERTIES OF AMERICA, INC., 2021 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 200, OAK BROOK IL 60523
John Peter Suarez	director	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Michael B Berman	director	C/O GENERAL GROWTH PROPERTIES, 110 NORTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Thomas W Dickson	director	301 S TRYON STREET, SUITE 1800, CHARLOTTE NC 28282
Julie Bowerman	director	C/O BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
William D. Rahm	director	C/O CENTERBRIDGE PARTNERS, L.P., 375 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
John Schreiber	director	682 BANK LANE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Steven F Siegel	officer: See Remarks	C/O BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Taylor James M Jr	officer: President and CEO	1626 EAST JEFFERSON STREET, ROCKVILLE MD 20852
Carolyn Carter Singh	officer: See Remarks	C/O BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC., 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mark Horgan	officer: EVP, Chief Investment Officer	C/O BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC., 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Steven T Gallagher	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP, INC., 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Sandra Aj Lawrence	director	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Daniel B Hurwitz	director	3300 ENTERPRISES PARKWAY, BEACHWOOD OH 44122