Buffalo Wild Wings (Buffalo Wild Wings) Predictability Rank

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What is Buffalo Wild Wings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Buffalo Wild Wings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Buffalo Wild Wings (Buffalo Wild Wings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Buffalo Wild Wings Inc (NAS:BWLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.buffalowildwings.com

Buffalo Wild Wings operates and franchises restaurants under the names Buffalo Wild Wings, R Taco, and PizzaRev. The Buffalo Wild Wings restaurants, which provide the vast majority of company revenue, have sports-bar atmospheres and feature Buffalo-style chicken wings. The restaurants are designed for group gatherings and feature projection screens and dozens of televisions. About half of the company's restaurants are franchised. The company has a centralized supply chain that serves all company-owned and franchised restaurants. The majority of its restaurants are in the United States, but the company has a small presence in Canada and Mexico and is expanding to the Middle East and Asia.

Executives

Richard Mcguire	director	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Alexander H Ware	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4000 DAIN RAUSCHER PLAZA, 60 SOUTH SIXTH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Andre J Fernandez	director	333 WEST STATE STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Harmit J Singh	director	71 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, 12TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Cindy L Davis	director	2635 SW GRENWOLDE PLACE, PORTLAND OR 97201
Andrew D. Block	officer: SVP-Talent Management	5500 WAYZATA BOULEVARD, SUITE 1600, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Lawton Iii Harry A	director	C/O EBAY INC., 2065, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Marcato Capital Management Llc	director	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Marcato International Master Fund, Ltd.	director	C/O OGIER FIDUCIARY SERVICES (CAYMAN)LTD, 89 NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9007
Janice L Fields	director	800 NORTH LINDBERGH BLVD., ST. LOUIS MO 63167
Scott Bergren	director	1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Sally J Smith	officer: CEO & President	5500 WAYZATA BLVD., SUITE 1600, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Sam Brian Rovit	director	KRAFT FOODS GROUP, INC., THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093
Michael P Johnson	director	2431 EAST 61ST STREET, TULSA OK 74136
Mary J Twinem	officer: Exec VP, CFO & Treasurer	5500 WAYZATA BLVD., SUITE 1600, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416