Citigroup (Citigroup) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Citigroup Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Citigroup (Citigroup) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CpJ.PFD:USA C:Peru C:Mexico C_KZ:Kazakhstan 1C:Italy TRVCd:UK 0R01:UK TRVC:Germany TRVC:Germany TRVC:Germany TRVC:Germany C:Chile CITI:Canada CTGP34:Brazil CITI:Austria C:Argentina

Address

388 Greenwich Street, New York, NY, USA, 10013

Website

https://www.citigroup.com

Citigroup is a global financial-services company doing business in more than 100 countries and jurisdictions. Citigroup's operations are organized into two primary segments: the institutional clients group and the personal banking and wealth-management group. The bank's primary services include cross-border banking needs for multinational corporates, investment banking and trading, and credit card services in the United States.

Executives

Andrew John Morton	officer: Head of Markets	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Andrew M. Sieg	officer: Head of Wealth	100 N TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Gonzalo Luchetti	officer: Head of U.S. Personal Banking	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Syed Shahmir Khaliq	officer: Head of Services	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Zdenek Turek	officer: Interim Chief Risk Officer	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Sara Wechter	officer: Head of Human Resources	388 GREENWICH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Titilope Cole	officer: CEO, Legacy Franchises	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Michael Whitaker	officer: Head of Enterprise O&T	388 GREENWICH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Von Koskull Casper Wilhelm	director	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Mary Mcniff	officer: CEO, CITIBANK, N.A.	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Brent Mcintosh	officer: General Counsel & Corp Sec'y	450 POST RD. EAST, WESTPORT CT 06880
Cantu Ernesto Torres	officer: CEO, Latin America	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Sunil Garg	officer: CEO, Citibank, N.A.	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Anand Selvakesari	officer: CEO, Global Consumer Banking	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Johnbull Okpara	officer: Controller&Chief Acct. Officer	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013