Conagra Brands (Conagra Brands) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Conagra Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Conagra Brands (Conagra Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Conagra Brands Inc (NYSE:CAG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CAO:Germany CAO:Germany

Address

222 W. Merchandise Mart Plaza, Suite 1300, Chicago, IL, USA, 60654

Website

https://www.conagrabrands.com

Conagra Brands is a packaged food company that operates predominantly in the United States (over 90% of revenue and profits). Most of its revenue comes from frozen food, including brands like Marie Callender's, Healthy Choice, Banquet, and Birds Eye. Conagra also sells snacks, shelf-stable staples, and refrigerated food through brands like Duncan Hines, Hunt's, Slim Jim, Vlasic, Orville Redenbacher's, Reddi-wip, Wish-Bone, and Chef Boyardee. The company primarily sells through the U.S. retail channel, with just 8% of fiscal 2023 revenue coming from international markets and 9% from foodservice.

Executives

Richard H Lenny	director	ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC., 155 HARLEM AVE., GLENVIEW IL 60025
Francisco Fraga	director	222 MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, SUITE 1300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Thomas M Mcgough	officer: EVP and Co-COO	C/O CONAGRA FOODS, INC., ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, MS 1-330, OMAHA NE 68102
William Eric Johnson	officer: SVP, Corporate Controller	222 MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, SUITE 1300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Charisse Brock	officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer	C/CONAGRA FOODS, INC., ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, MS1-330, OMAHA NE 68102
Robert G Wise	officer: SVP, Corporate Controller	C/O CONAGRA FOODS, INC., ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68102
Carey Bartell	officer: EVP, GC and Corp. Secretary	C/O CONAGRA BRANDS, INC., 222 W. MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, STE. 1300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Denise Paulonis	director	8000 BENT BRANCH DRIVE, IRVING TX 75063
Emanuel Chirico	director	7 NEW YORK PLACE, BRONSVILLE NY 10708
Batcheler Colleen	officer: SVP and General Counsel	ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68102
Darren Serrao	officer: EVP and Co-COO	C/CONAGRA FOODS, INC., ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, MS1-330, OMAHA NE 68102
George Dowdie	director	C/O CONAGRA BRANDS, INC., 222 W. MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, STE 1300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Fran Horowitz-bonadies	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Alexandre Eboli	officer: EVP,Chief Supply Chain Officer	C/O CONAGRA BRANDS, INC., 222 W. MERCHANDISE MART PLAZA, STE. 1300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Jana Partners Llc	director, other: See Remarks	767 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153