The Cato (The Cato) Predictability Rank

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What is The Cato Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Cato Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Cato (The Cato) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » The Cato Corp (NYSE:CATO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CO2A:Germany

Address

8100 Denmark Road, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28273-5975

Website

https://www.catofashions.com

The Cato Corp operates as a specialty retailer of fashion apparel and accessories primarily in the southeastern United States. Its primary objective is to be the fashion specialty retailer for fashion and value in its markets. The company operates through the following business segments: Retail and Credit. The Retail segment which generates majority revenue offers fashion specialty stores. The Credit segment involves credit card services.

Executives

Bailey W Patrick	director
Cato John P D	director, officer: CHAIRMAN/PRESIDENT/CEO	CATO CORP, PO BOX 34216, CHARLOTTE NC 28234
Audrey Schwarz	officer: Vice President, DMM	PO BOX 34216, CHARLOTTE NC 28234
Charles D Knight	officer: EVP - Chief Financial Officer	TOYS R US, INC., ONE GEOFFREY WAY, WAYNE NJ 07470-2030
Hang Matchett	officer: SVP-Mdse Plan, Alloc&Ctrl, MIO	PO BOX 34216, CHARLOTTE NC 28234
Karen Anne Collins	officer: SVP-Tsry,Tax,Fin Pln,Tax,Cr,IR	PO BOX 34216, CHARLOTTE NC 28234
Theresa J Drew	director	ONE NORTH SECOND STREET, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Daniel Harding Stowe	director	CATO CORP, PO BOX 34216, CHARLOTTE NC 28234-4216
Abby Shearer	officer: SVP, General Merchandise Mgr	PO BOX 34216, CHARLOTTE NC 28234
Lewis Pamela S Dr	director	QUEENS UNIVERSITY OF CHARLOTTE, 1900 SELWYN AVENUE, CHARLOTTE NC 28274
Scott Gurvis	officer: SVP,Treasury, Fin Plan, Credit	PO BOX 34216, CHARLOTTE NC 28234
Weisiger, Jr Edward I	director	PO BOX 34216, CHARLOTTE NC 28234
Vickie Smith	officer: SVP, MERCH PLNG, ALLOC & CNTL	C/O DESTINATION XL GROUP, INC., 555 TURNPIKE STREET, CANTON MA 02021
Lisa Krows	officer: SVP, DESIGN, TREND & COLOR	PO BOX 34216, CHARLOTTE NC 28234
Cathy Bailey	officer: SVP, GMM (CATO DIV)	PO BOX 34216, CHARLOTTE NC 28234