Cogent Communications Holdings (Cogent Communications Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cogent Communications Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cogent Communications Holdings (Cogent Communications Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » Cogent Communications Holdings Inc (NAS:CCOI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OGM1:Germany

Address

2450 N Street North West, Washington, DC, USA, 20037

Website

https://www.cogentco.com

Cogent carries over one fifth of the world's internet traffic over its network and is a broadband provider for businesses. Cogent's corporate customers are in high-rise office buildings; the firm provides them with two types of connections: dedicated internet access, which connects them to the internet, and virtual private networking, which offers an internal network for employees in different locations. Cogent's corporate customers are exclusively in North America and account for over half of the firm's revenue. Cogent's netcentric customers include internet service providers and content providers, to which Cogent provides internet transit. They hand traffic to Cogent in data centers and rely on Cogent to deliver it. About half of netcentric revenue is from outside the U.S.

Executives

John B. Chang	officer: VP & CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	2450 N ST NW, 4TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Dave Schaeffer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President & CEO	C/O COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC., 2450 N ST NW, 4TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Henry W Kilmer	officer: VP of IP Engineering	C/O COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC., 2450 N ST NW, 4TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20037
James Bubeck	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	2450 N STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Thaddeus Gerard Weed	officer: VP, Controller	COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC., 2450 N ST NW, 4TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Lewis H Ferguson	director	8717 BURDETTE ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20817
Sheryl Lynn Kennedy	director	C/O COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC., 2450 N STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20037
Blake Bath	director	1010 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 600, WASHINGTON DC 20007
Marc Montagner	other: director nominee	C/O ENDURANCE INT'L GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 10 CORPORATE DRIVE, SUITE 300, BURLINGTON MA 01803
David Allen Kapp	officer: VP & CHIEF TECHNICAL OFFICER	C/O COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC., 2450 N STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20037
Jeffrey S Danielson	officer: VP Infrastructure	C/O COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC., 2450 N STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20037
Steven D Brooks	director	C/O COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC., 2450 N ST NW, 4TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Greg W O'connor	officer: VP, CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	C/O COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC., 2450 N STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20037
Eve N Howard	director	C/O COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC., 2450 N STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20037
Sa Paul De	director	C/O COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC., 2450 N STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20037