What is Colgate-Palmolive Co Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Colgate-Palmolive Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Colgate-Palmolive Co (Colgate-Palmolive Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
300 Park Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10022-7499
Since its founding in 1806, Colgate-Palmolive has grown to become a leading global consumer product company. In addition to its namesake oralcare line, the firm manufactures shampoos, shower gels, deodorants, and homecare products that are sold in over 200 countries. International accounts for about 70% of its total sales base, including approximately 45% from emerging regions. It also owns specialty pet food maker Hill's, which sells its products through veterinarians and specialty pet retailers.
Executives
| Jennifer Daniels |
officer: CLO and Secretary |
C/O BARNES & NOBLE, INC., 122 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| Panagiotis Tsourapas |
officer: Pres., Colgate-Africa/Eurasia |
C/O COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY, 300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| John T Cahill |
director |
LEGG MASON, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202 |
| John W Kooyman |
officer: Chief Marketing Officer |
300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Lorrie M Norrington |
director |
C/O EBAY INC., 2145 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125 |
| Noel R. Wallace |
officer: Pres.- Colgate No. America |
C/O COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY, 300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Gregory Malcolm |
officer: Vice President and Controller |
300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Sally Massey |
officer: Chief Human Resources Officer |
300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| John P Bilbrey |
director |
|
| Prabha Parameswaran |
officer: Grp Pres, Glbl Innov. & AF/Eus |
300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Stephen I Sadove |
director |
|
| C Martin Harris |
director |
|
| Steven A Cahillane |
director |
ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313 |
| Philip G. Shotts |
officer: Vice President and Controller |
300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Patricia Verduin |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
ONE CONAGRA DRIVE, OMAHA NE 68102 |
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