Conn's (Conn's) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2003. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Conn's Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Conn's Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Conn's's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Conn's (Conn's) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Conn's Inc (NAS:CONN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CN4:Germany

Address

2445 Technology Forest Boulevard, Suite 800, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77381

Website

https://www.conns.com

Conn's Inc is a United-States-based specialty retailer engaged in the sale of durable consumer goods and related services. The company operates through two segments. The retail segment sells a broad range of merchandise, including furniture and mattress products, home appliances, consumer electronics, and home office products. The credit segment provides credit solutions for credit-constrained consumers based on customer risk and income level. A material portion of the company's customers finances purchases through its credit segment. The company focuses its business on the U.S. and generates its revenue from the retail segment.

Executives

Stephens Group, Llc	10 percent owner	100 RIVER BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 500, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
Ann B Gugino	director	1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD, ST. PAUL MN 55120
Timothy P Santo	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., STE. 800, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Karen Hartje	director	251 1ST AVENUE N, SUITE 200, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55401-1672
Douglas H Martin	director, 10 percent owner	C/O STEPHENS INC, 111 CENTER ST, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Paula W. & John P. Calhoun Family Trust - Wmas	10 percent owner	111 CENTER STREET, SUITE 2300, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Warren Miles Amerine Stephens Family Trust One	10 percent owner	111 CENTER STREET, SUITE 2300, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Brian Daly	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	4055 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., STE. 210, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Warren A Stephens	10 percent owner	111 CENTER STREET, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Harriet C Stephens	10 percent owner	C/O STEPHENS INC, 111 CENTER ST, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Was Family Trust Five	10 percent owner	111 CENTER STREET, SUITE 2300, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Stephens Warren A Trust Uid 9/30/87	10 percent owner	C/O STEPHENS INC, 111 CENTER ST, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
Thomas John Fenton	officer: Chief Credit Officer	2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., SUITE 800, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Warren Miles Stephens	10 percent owner	111 CENTER STREET, SUITE 2300, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201
John Calhoun Stephens	10 percent owner	111 CENTER STREET, SUITE 2300, LITTLE ROCK AR 72201