SELECT id, `name`, primary_key, `key`, treemapgroup, name_cn, zacks_table_name, compare_key, compare_display_name from gurufocu_main.financial_definition where termpagedisplay=1 and `key` = 'predictability_rank' Costco Wholesale (COST) Predictability Rank
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Costco Wholesale Corp (NAS:COST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Costco Wholesale (COST) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Costco Wholesale Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Costco Wholesale Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Costco Wholesale (COST) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Costco Wholesale Corp (NAS:COST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
WMT TGT DG DLTR BJ OLLI TBBB PSMT BIG WALMEX BOM:540376 TSX:DOL TSE:7532 MIC:MGNT LSE:BME TSE:2651 WAR:PCO TSE:141A TSE:2782 XKRX:139480
Traded in Other Exchanges
COST:Mexico CTO0:Germany CTO:Germany CTO:Germany CTO:Germany CTO:Germany COST:Chile COST:Canada COWC34:Brazil COST:Argentina
Address
999 Lake Drive, Issaquah, WA, USA, 98027
Website
https://www.costco.com
Costco operates a membership-based, no-frills retail model, predicated on offering a select product assortment in bulk quantities at bargain prices. The firm avoids maintaining costly product displays by keeping inventory on pallets and limits distribution expenses by storing its inventory at point of sale in the warehouse. Given Costco's frugal cost structure, the firm is able to price its merchandise below competing retailers, driving high sales volume per warehouse and allowing the retailer to generate strong profits on thin margins. Costco operates nearly 600 warehouses in the United States and boasts over 60% market share in the domestic warehouse club industry. Internationally, Costco operates another 270 warehouses, primarily in markets such as Canada, Mexico, Japan, and the U.K.
Executives
W Craig Jelinek officer: Executive VP 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
Yoram Rubananko officer: Executive VP 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
Caton Frates officer: Executive Vice President 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
Daniel M. Hines other: Principal Acctg Officer 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
Richard A Galanti director, officer: Executive VP and CFO 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
Pierre Riel officer: EVP 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
Russell D Miller officer: Executive Vice President 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
Claudine Adamo officer: Executive Vice President 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
James C Klauer officer: Executive Vice President 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
Patrick J Callans officer: Executive VP 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
Helena Foulkes director ONE CVS DRIVE, WOONSOCKET RI 02895
Susan L Decker director C/O YAHOO INC, 701 FIRST AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Roland Michael Vachris officer: Executive VP 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
James P. Murphy officer: Executive VP 999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027
Kenneth D Denman director