Campbell Soup Co (Campbell Soup Co) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Campbell Soup Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Campbell Soup Co (Campbell Soup Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Campbell Soup Co (NYSE:CPB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CPB:Mexico CSC:Germany CSC:Germany CSC:Germany C1PB34:Brazil

Address

1 Campbell Place, Camden, NJ, USA, 08103-1799

Website

https://www.campbellsoupcompany.com

With a history that dates back around 150 years, Campbell Soup is now a leading manufacturer and marketer of branded convenience food products, most notably soup. The firm's product assortment includes well-known brands like Campbell's, Pace, Prego, Swanson, V8, and Pepperidge Farm. Following the sale of its international snacking operations in calendar 2019, the firm derives nearly all of its sales from the United States. Campbell has made a handful of acquisitions to reshape its product mix in the past several years, including the tie-up with Snyder's-Lance in March 2018, which enhanced its exposure to the faster-growing on-trend snack food aisle, complementing its Pepperidge Farm lineup.

Executives

Anthony Sanzio	officer: Executive Vice President	1 CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Stanley Polomski	officer: Vice President and Controller	ONE CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Carrie L Anderson	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Adam Grey Ciongoli	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Bennett Jr Dorrance	director	1, CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Craig Slavtcheff	officer: Senior Vice President	1 CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Daniel L Poland	officer: EVP, Chief Supply Chain Off.	399 JEFFERSON ROAD, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
May Diane Johnson	officer: Executive VP & CHRO	C/O KRAFT FOODS GROUP, INC., THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093
Grant Hill	director	121 ORANGE AVE, SUITE 1500, ORLANDO FL 32801
Valerie Oswalt	officer: Executive Vice President	1 CAMPBELL PLACE, ATTN: LEGAL DEPARTMENT, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Mick J Beekhuizen	officer: Senior Vice President & CFO	C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Robert Furbee	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Randall W Larrimore	director	OLIN CORPORATION, 190 CARONDELET PLAZA, SUITE 1530, CLAYTON MO 63105
Christopher Foley	officer: Senior Vice President	CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY, ONE CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
John P Bilbrey	director