Consumer Portfolio Services (Consumer Portfolio Services) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1992. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Consumer Portfolio Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Consumer Portfolio Services Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Consumer Portfolio Services's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Consumer Portfolio Services (Consumer Portfolio Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Consumer Portfolio Services Inc (NAS:CPSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FC8:Germany

Address

3800 Howard Hughes Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89169

Website

https://www.consumerportfolio.com

Consumer Portfolio Services Inc is a U.S based company operating in the specialty finance sector. Its business is to purchase and service retail automobile contracts originated primarily by franchised automobile dealers and, to a lesser extent, by select independent dealers in the U.S. in the sale of new and used automobiles, light trucks and passenger vans. Through its automobile contract purchases, the company provides indirect financing to the customers of dealers having limited credit histories, low incomes or past credit problems, who it refers to as sub-prime customers. It serves as an alternative source of financing for dealers, facilitating sales to customers.

Executives

Daniel S Wood	director
Charles E. Gonel	officer: Sr. Vice President	3800 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, SUITE 1400, LAS VEGAS NV 86169
Susan Ryan	officer: Sr. Vice President	3800 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, SUITE 1400, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Michele L Baumeister	officer: Sr. Vice President	19500 JAMBOREE RD, SUITE 600, IRVINE CA 92612
April Crisp	officer: Sr. Vice President	19500 JAMBOREE RD, STE 600, IRVINE CA 92610
Lisette Reynoso	officer: Sr. Vice President	19500 JAMBOREE RD., IRVINE CA 92612
Steven Howard Schween	officer: Sr. Vice President	3800 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, SUITE 1400, LAS VEGAS CA 89169
Catrina Marie Ralston	officer: Sr. Vice President	3800 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, SUITE 1400, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Greg Washer	director	3187 PULLMAN STREET, COSTA MESA CA 92618
Jeffrey P Fritz	officer: SVP & CFO	16355 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, IRVINE CA 92618
James E Walker	director	1601 WASHINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 800, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Chris Terry	officer: Sr. Vice President
John Patrick Harton	officer: Sr. Vice President	19500 JAMBOREE ROAD, IRVINE CA 92612
Black Diamond Capital Management, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	2187 ATLANTIC STREET, 9TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
Teri Clements	officer: Sr. Vice President	19500 JAMBOREE RD, IRVINE CA 92612