Curis (CRIS) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Curis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Curis Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Curis (CRIS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Curis Inc (NAS:CRIS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CUS0:Germany

Address

128 Spring Street, Building C - Suite 500, Lexington, MA, USA, 02421

Website

https://www.curis.com

Curis Inc is a biotechnology company that develops and commercializes innovative drugs and therapies in the immuno-oncology and precision oncology therapeutic areas. The company targets solid tumors, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, advanced solid tumors or lymphomas, hematological cancers, and others. Its pipeline products include Fimepinostat, CA-170, CA-4948, CA-327, and Erivedge.

Executives

Jonathan B. Zung	officer: CDO	C/O EVELO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 620 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 200, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Anne Elizabeth Borgman	director	9000 VIRGINIA MANOR ROAD, SUITE 200, BELTSVILLE MD 20705
John Hohneker	director	C/O DIMENSION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Marc Rubin	director	C/O TITAN PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 400 OYSTER POINT BLVD., STE 505, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Kenneth I Kaitin	director	C/O TUFTS CNTR FOR THE STUDY OF DRUG DEV, 75 KNEELAND ST, SUITE 1100, BOSTON MA 02111
Martyn D Greenacre	director	41 MOORES ROAD, FRAZER PA 19355
Robert Martell	officer: Head of Research & Development	4 MAGUIRE ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Diantha Duvall	officer: CFO	C/O GENOCEA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 100 ACORN PARK DRIVE 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
James E Dentzer	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
William Steinkrauss	officer: VP, Finance & Treasurer, other: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O CURIS, INC.,, 4 MAGUIRE ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Lori Anne Kunkel	director	C/O PHARMACYCLICS, INC., 995 EAST ARQUES AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Fattaey Ali Ph.d.	officer: President & COO	C/O CURIS, INC., 4 MAGUIRE ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
James R Mcnab	director	C/O CURIS, INC, 4 MAGUIRE ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Aurigene Discovery Technologies Ltd	10 percent owner	39-40 KIADB INDUSTRIAL AREA, PHASE II, ELECTRONIC CITY HOSUR ROAD, BANGALORE (KARNATAKA) K7 560100
David Tuck	officer: Sr. Vice-President	C/O CURIS, INC., 4 MAGUIRE ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421