Salesforce (Salesforce) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Salesforce Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Salesforce (Salesforce) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CRM:Peru CRM:Mexico CRM_KZ:Kazakhstan 1CRM:Italy FOOd:UK 0QYJ:UK FOO0:Germany FOO:Germany FOO:Germany FOO:Germany CRM:Canada SSFO34:Brazil CRM:Argentina

Address

415 Mission Street, 3rd Floor, Salesforce Tower, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105

Website

https://www.salesforce.com

Salesforce Inc provides enterprise cloud computing solutions. The company offers customer relationship management technology that brings companies and customers together. Its Customer 360 platform helps the group to deliver a single source of truth, connecting customer data across systems, apps, and devices to help companies sell, service, market, and conduct commerce. It also offers Service Cloud for customer support, Marketing Cloud for digital marketing campaigns, Commerce Cloud as an e-commerce engine, the Salesforce Platform, which allows enterprises to build applications, and other solutions, such as MuleSoft for data integration.

Executives

Brian Millham	officer: President and COO	415 MISSION STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 90403
Sundeep G. Reddy	officer: EVP & Chief Accounting Officer	6555 NORTH STATE HWY 161, IRVING TX 75039
Srinivas Tallapragada	officer: President, Technology	THE LANDMARK AT ONE MARKET STREET, #300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Amy E Weaver	officer: EVP, General Counsel	THE LANDMARK @ ONE MARKET STREET #300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Parker Harris	director, officer: Co-Founder and CTO	THE LANDMARK @ ONE MARKET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Marc Benioff	director, officer: Chairman of the Board & CEO	50 FREMONT STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Brent Hyder	officer: President/Chief People Officer	415 MISSION STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Miguel Milano	officer: President and CRO	415 MISSION ST, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Sabastian Niles	officer: President and CLO	415 MISSION ST, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Neelie Kroes	director	VAN BRONCKHORSTLAAN, 2242 PZ WASSENAAR, NETHERLANDS P8 99999
Valueact Capital Management, Llc	director, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
J. Mehra Sachin	director	HESS CORPORATION, 1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Arnold W Donald	director	C/O CARNIVAL CORPORATION, 3655 N.W. 87TH AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33178
G Mason Morfit	director, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Valueact Holdings Ii, L.p.	director, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, FOURTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129