Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (Cross Timbers Royalty Trust) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cross Timbers Royalty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (Cross Timbers Royalty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (NYSE:CRT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

C/o Corporate Argent Trust Company, 2911 Turtle Creek Boulevard, Suite 850, Dallas, TX, USA, 75219

Website

http://www.crt-crosstimbers.com

Cross Timbers Royalty Trust is a United States based trust. Its principal asset is the net profits interests. The net profits interests are derived from producing royalty, overriding royalty interests, and working interests properties. The underlying properties of the trust include producing properties in Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico.

Executives

Gary D. Simpson	officer: Sr VP Investor Rel & Finance, other: Advisory Dir - XTO Energy Inc.	810 HOUSTON STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Timothy L Petrus	other: Exec VP - XTO Energy Inc.	810 HOUSTON STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Phillip R Kevil	other: Director-XTO Energy Inc.	C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Vennerberg Vaughn O Ii	other: Exec. VP - Admin., XTO Energy
Bob R Simpson	other: Dir/CEO/Chair, XTO Energy	C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Bennie G Kniffen	other: Sr. VP-Controller, XTO Energy
Steffen E Palko	Dir, Pres. and Vice Chairman, other: Dir/Pres/Vice Chair-XTO Energy
Louis G Baldwin	other: Executive VP-CFO, XTO Energy
Keith A Hutton	other: Exec. VP-Operation, XTO Energy	C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Lane G Collins	other: Director, XTO Energy
Jack P Randall	other: Director, XTO Energy Inc.
Adams William H Iii	other: Director, XTO Energy Inc.	C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Scott G Sherman	other: Director XTO Energy Inc.
Herbert D Simons	other: Director, XTO Energy Inc.