1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
CommVault Systems Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
CommVault Systems (CommVault Systems) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1 CommVault Way, Tinton Falls, NJ, USA, 07724
CommVault Systems Inc provides data and information management software applications and services. The firm sells software licenses and services to large global enterprises, small- and midsize businesses, and government agencies through both its salesforce and its network of reseller partners. Its software solutions include Commvault Complete Backup and Recovery, HyperScale, Hedvig, and Metallic. The company operates in the United States and exports to many other countries.
Executives
| Allison Pickens |
director |
471 29TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94131 |
| Gary Merrill |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2 CRESCENT PLACE, OCEANPORT NJ 07757 |
| Sanjay Mirchandani |
director, officer: President & CEO |
188 MINNA STREET, #29C, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105 |
| Blasio Riccardo Di |
officer: Chief Revenue Officer |
1226 COLUMBUS BLVD, CORAL GABLES FL 33134 |
| Vivie Lee |
director |
126 SIERRA POINT ROAD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| James J. Whalen |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
26 SAGAMORE AVENUE, OCEANPORT NJ 07757 |
| Nicola Adamo |
director |
10 MAACKA DRIVE, HOLMDEL NJ 07733 |
| David F Walker |
director |
14388 EAGLE POINTE DR, CLEARWATER FL 337622214 |
| A Shane Sanders |
director |
2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, SUITE 800W, WASHINGTON DC 20037 |
| Charles E Moran |
director |
2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY, 10TH FLOOR, ATLANTA GA 30339 |
| Arlen Shenkman |
director |
C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309 |
| Martha Helena Bejar |
director |
C/O POLYCOM, INC., 6001 AMERICA CENTER DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95002 |
| Richard Todd Bradley |
director |
C/O HEWLETT-PACKARD COMPANY, 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Keith Geeslin |
director |
C/O FRANCISCO PARTNERS, ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BLDG. C, STE. 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129 |
| Brian Carolan |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC, 2 CRESCENT PL, OCEANPORT NJ 07757-0900 |
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