Donaldson Co (Donaldson Co) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Donaldson Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Donaldson Co (Donaldson Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Donaldson Co Inc (NYSE:DCI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DNZ:Germany

Address

1400 West 94th Street, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55431

Website

https://ir.donaldson.com

Donaldson is a leading manufacturer of filtration systems and replacement parts (including air filtration systems, liquid filtration systems, and dust, fume, and mist collectors). The company serves a diverse range of end markets, including construction, mining, agriculture, truck, and industrial. Its business is organized into three segments: mobile solutions, industrial solutions, and life sciences. Donaldson generated approximately $3.4 billion in revenue and $480 million in operating income in its fiscal 2023.

Executives

Willard D Oberton	director	2001 THEURER BLVD, WINONA MN 55987
Ajita G Rajendra	director	A. O. SMITH WATER PRODUCTS COMPANY, 500 LINDAHL PARKWAY, ASHLAND CITY TN 37015
Guillermo Briseno	officer: President	PO BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440
James Owens	director	1200 WILLOW LAKE BOULEVARD, P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55164-0683
Douglas A. Milroy	director	PO BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440
Amy C Becker	officer: Vice President	P.O. BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1299
Scott J. Robinson	officer: Senior Vice President	P.O. BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1299
Christopher M. Hilger	director	PO BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440
Thomas R Scalf	officer: Senior Vice President	P.O. BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1299
Andrew C Dahlgren	officer: President	PO BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440
Wim Vermeersch	officer: Vice President	P.O. BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1299
Tod E. Carpenter	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	P.O. BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1299
Jeffrey E Spethmann	officer: Senior Vice President	P.O. BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1299
Sheila G. Kramer	officer: Vice President	P.O. BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1299
Richard Brent Lewis	officer: Senior Vice President	PO BOX 1299, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440