DuPont de Nemours (DuPont de Nemours) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1947. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DuPont de Nemours Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

DuPont de Nemours Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of DuPont de Nemours's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

DuPont de Nemours (DuPont de Nemours) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » DuPont de Nemours Inc (NYSE:DD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DD:Mexico 1DD:Italy 6D8:Germany 6D81:Germany 6D81:Germany DDNB34:Brazil DD:Argentina

Address

974 Centre Road, Building 730, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19805

Website

https://www.dupont.com

DuPont is a diversified global specialty chemicals company created in 2019 as a result of the DowDuPont merger and subsequent separations. Its portfolio includes specialty chemicals and downstream products that serve the electronics and communication, automotive, construction, safety and protection, and water management industries. DuPont benefits from the ability to produce patented specialty chemicals that command pricing power. Noteworthy products include Kevlar, Tyvek, and Nomex, which have evolved over time to enable a wide range of applications across multiple industries.

Executives

Raj Ratnakar	officer: SVP & Chief Strategy Officer	C/O FORTIVE CORPORATION, 6920 SEAWAY BOULEVARD, EVERETT WA 98203
Jon D. Kemp	officer: President, Electronics & Indus	974 CENTRE ROAD, CRP 730, WILMINGTON DE 19805
Michael G. Goss	officer: Controller	974 CENTRE ROAD, CRP 730, WILMINGTON DE 19805
Kristina M Johnson	director	19 HEATH PL, DURHAM NC 27705
Amy G. Brady	director	127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Deanna Mulligan	director	7 HANOVER SQUARE, NEW YORK NY 10004
Du Pont Eleuthere I	director	1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19810
Raymond J Milchovich	director	C/O FOSTER WHEELER LTD, PERRYVILLE CORP PARK, CLINTON NJ 08809-4000
Kissam Luther C Iv	director	3801 BERESFORD ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Ruby R Chandy	director	630 DUNDEE ROAD, SUITE 400, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Frederick M. Lowery	director	974 CENTRE ROAD, CRP 730, WILMINGTON DE 19805
Steven Sterin	director	19100 RIDGEWOOD PARKWAY, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Terrence R Curtin	director	C/O TYCO ELECTRONICS LTD., 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Alexander M Cutler	director	EATON CENTER, 1111 SUPERIOR AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Leland Weaver	officer: President, Water & Protection	974 CENTRE ROAD, CRP 730, 5216, WILMINGTON DE 19805