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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Daxor Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Daxor (DXR) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
109 Meco Lane, Oak Ridge, TN, USA, 37830
Daxor Corp is a medical instrumentation and biotechnology company focused on blood volume measurement. It develops and markets the BVA-100 (Blood Volume Analyzer), the first diagnostic blood test cleared by the FDA to provide safe, accurate, objective quantification of blood volume status and composition compared to patient-specific norms in a broad range of medical conditions.
Executives
| Robert J Michel |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
C/O ASTA FUNDING, INC., 210 SYLVAN AVENUE, ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS NJ 07632 |
| Michael Richard Feldschuh |
director |
71 GRAND STREET #2, NEW YORK NY 10013 |
| Joy S. Goudie |
director |
350 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 4740, NEW YORK NY 10118 |
| Caleb Desrosiers |
director |
DAXOR CORPORATION, 109 MECO LANE, OAK RIDGE TN 37830 |
| Henry D. Cremisi |
director |
350 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 4740, NEW YORK NY 10118 |
| Edward Feuer |
director |
2 WALL STREET, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005 |
| Soren Thompson |
officer: V.P./BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT |
180 CENTRAL PARK SOUTH, APT. 805, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Jonathan Adam Feldschuh |
director, officer: CHIEF SCIENTIFIC OFFICER |
DAXOR CORPORATION, 350 5TH AVENUE, SUITE 4740, NEW YORK NY 10118 |
| Joseph Feldschuh |
officer: President |
615 W. 252ND STREET, BRONX NY 10471 |
| Estate Of Joseph Feldschuh |
other: FOUNDER |
350 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 4740, NEW YORK NY 10118 |
| Diane Marie Meegan |
officer: Corporate Secretary |
259 NEW YORK AVENUE, JERSEY CITY NJ 07307 |
| Bernhard Saxe |
director |
6805 WILD ROSE COURT, SPRINGFIELD VA 25152 |
| Robert Willens |
director |
200 EAST 74TH ST APT 18C, NEW YORK NY 10021 |
| Philip Nordan Hudson |
director |
P.O. BOX 160892, SAN ANTONIO TX 78280-3092 |
| Everis Engstrom |
officer: Vice President |
3244 BLACK FOX ROAD, WASHBURN TN 37888 |
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