eBay (EBAY) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

eBay Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

eBay Predictability Rank Related Terms

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eBay (EBAY) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » eBay Inc (NAS:EBAY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EBAY:Mexico 1EBAY:Italy EBAd:UK 0R3D:UK EBA:Germany EBA:Germany EBA:Germany EBA:Germany EBAY34:Brazil EBAY:Austria EBAY:Argentina

Address

2025 Hamilton Avenue, San Jose, CA, USA, 95125

Website

https://www.ebay.com

EBay operates one of the largest e-commerce marketplaces in the world, with $74 billion in 2022 gross merchandise volume, or GMV, rendering the firm a top 10 global e-commerce company. eBay generates revenue from listing fees, advertising, revenue-sharing arrangements with service providers, and managed payments, with its platform connecting more than 132 million buyers and roughly 20 million sellers across almost 190 global markets at the end of 2022. eBay generates just north of 50% of its GMV in international markets, with a large presence in the U.K., Germany, and Australia.

Executives

Edward O Garcia	officer: SVP, Chief Product Officer	C/O EBAY INC, 2025 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Boone Cornelius	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O EBAY INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95125
Jamie Iannone	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O BARNES & NOBLE, INC., 122 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10111
Paul S Pressler	director	C/O EBAY INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Stephen J Priest	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATIOM, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Rebecca Spencer	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O EBAY INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95125
Shripriya Mahesh Ramanan	director	C/O EBAY INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95125
Robert Holmes Swan	officer: SVP, Finance & CFO	C/O EBAY INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Brian J. Doerger	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O EBAY INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Aparna Chennapragada	director	C/O EBAY, INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95125
Pete Thompson	officer: SVP, Chief Product Officer	1778 MCCARTHY BLVD, MILPITAS CA 95035
Kathleen C. Mitic	director	C/O EBAY INC., 2065 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Marie Oh Huber	officer: SVP, GC & Secretary	C/O EBAY INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Logan Green	director	C/O EBAY INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95125
Anthony John Bates	director	788 DIXON WAY, LOS ALTOS CA 94022